"Deforestacion" segun"

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WHAT IS IT?

This model explores the stability of predator-prey ecosystems. Such a system is called unstable if it tends to result in extinction for one or more species involved. In contrast, a system is stable if it tends to maintain itself over time, despite fluctuations in population sizes.

HOW IT WORKS

There are two main variations to this model.

In the first variation, wolves and sheep wander randomly around the landscape, while the wolves look for sheep to prey on. Each step costs the wolves energy, and they must eat sheep in order to replenish their energy - when they run out of energy they die. To allow the population to continue, each wolf or sheep has a fixed probability of reproducing at each time step. This variation produces interesting population dynamics, but is ultimately unstable.

The second variation includes grass (green) in addition to wolves and sheep. The behavior of the wolves is identical to the first variation, however this time the sheep must eat grass in order to maintain their energy - when they run out of energy they die. Once grass is eaten it will only regrow after a fixed amount of time. This variation is more complex than the first, but it is generally stable.

The construction of this model is described in two papers by Wilensky & Reisman referenced below.

HOW TO USE IT

  1. Set the GRASS? switch to TRUE to include grass in the model, or to FALSE to only include wolves (red) and sheep (white).
  2. Adjust the slider parameters (see below), or use the default settings.
  3. Press the SETUP button.
  4. Press the GO button to begin the simulation.
  5. Look at the monitors to see the current population sizes
  6. Look at the POPULATIONS plot to watch the populations fluctuate over time

Parameters: INITIAL-NUMBER-SHEEP: The initial size of sheep population INITIAL-NUMBER-WOLVES: The initial size of wolf population SHEEP-GAIN-FROM-FOOD: The amount of energy sheep get for every grass patch eaten WOLF-GAIN-FROM-FOOD: The amount of energy wolves get for every sheep eaten SHEEP-REPRODUCE: The probability of a sheep reproducing at each time step WOLF-REPRODUCE: The probability of a wolf reproducing at each time step GRASS?: Whether or not to include grass in the model GRASS-REGROWTH-TIME: How long it takes for grass to regrow once it is eaten SHOW-ENERGY?: Whether or not to show the energy of each animal as a number

Notes:

  • one unit of energy is deducted for every step a wolf takes
  • when grass is included, one unit of energy is deducted for every step a sheep takes

THINGS TO NOTICE

When grass is not included, watch as the sheep and wolf populations fluctuate. Notice that increases and decreases in the sizes of each population are related. In what way are they related? What eventually happens?

Once grass is added, notice the green line added to the population plot representing fluctuations in the amount of grass. How do the sizes of the three populations appear to relate now? What is the explanation for this?

Why do you suppose that some variations of the model might be stable while others are not?

THINGS TO TRY

Try adjusting the parameters under various settings. How sensitive is the stability of the model to the particular parameters?

Can you find any parameters that generate a stable ecosystem that includes only wolves and sheep?

Try setting GRASS? to TRUE, but setting INITIAL-NUMBER-WOLVES to 0. This gives a stable ecosystem with only sheep and grass. Why might this be stable while the variation with only sheep and wolves is not?

Notice that under stable settings, the populations tend to fluctuate at a predictable pace. Can you find any parameters that will speed this up or slow it down?

Try changing the reproduction rules -- for example, what would happen if reproduction depended on energy rather than being determined by a fixed probability?

EXTENDING THE MODEL

There are a number ways to alter the model so that it will be stable with only wolves and sheep (no grass). Some will require new elements to be coded in or existing behaviors to be changed. Can you develop such a version?

NETLOGO FEATURES

Note the use of breeds to model two different kinds of "turtles": wolves and sheep. Note the use of patches to model grass.

Note use of the ONE-OF agentset reporter to select a random sheep to be eaten by a wolf.

RELATED MODELS

Look at Rabbits Grass Weeds for another model of interacting populations with different rules.

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Wilensky, U. & Reisman, K. (1999). Connected Science: Learning Biology through Constructing and Testing Computational Theories -- an Embodied Modeling Approach. International Journal of Complex Systems, M. 234, pp. 1 - 12. (This model is a slightly extended version of the model described in the paper.)

Wilensky, U. & Reisman, K. (2006). Thinking like a Wolf, a Sheep or a Firefly: Learning Biology through Constructing and Testing Computational Theories -- an Embodied Modeling Approach. Cognition & Instruction, 24(2), pp. 171-209. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/papers/wolfsheep.pdf

HOW TO CITE

If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include these citations for the model itself and for the NetLogo software:

COPYRIGHT AND LICENSE

Copyright 1997 Uri Wilensky.

CC BY-NC-SA 3.0

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

Commercial licenses are also available. To inquire about commercial licenses, please contact Uri Wilensky at uri@northwestern.edu.

This model was created as part of the project: CONNECTED MATHEMATICS: MAKING SENSE OF COMPLEX PHENOMENA THROUGH BUILDING OBJECT-BASED PARALLEL MODELS (OBPML). The project gratefully acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (Applications of Advanced Technologies Program) -- grant numbers RED #9552950 and REC #9632612.

This model was converted to NetLogo as part of the projects: PARTICIPATORY SIMULATIONS: NETWORK-BASED DESIGN FOR SYSTEMS LEARNING IN CLASSROOMS and/or INTEGRATED SIMULATION AND MODELING ENVIRONMENT. The project gratefully acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (REPP & ROLE programs) -- grant numbers REC #9814682 and REC-0126227. Converted from StarLogoT to NetLogo, 2000.

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Click to Run Model

breed [arboles arbol]  
breed [leñadores leñador]

turtles-own [energía]       
patches-own [ crecimiento ]  


;;iniciar --> establecer el mundo del modelo....

to iniciar
  clear-all  
  ask patches [ 
    set crecimiento random 21
    ifelse (crecimiento = 20) 
    [ set pcolor green ]
    [ set pcolor brown ]
  ]

  create-arboles num-inicial-arboles 
  [
    set color green
    set shape "tree"
    set size 1.5  ;; más fácil ver
    set energía random (2 * arboles-energía-de-suelo) + 10
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
  ]
  
  create-leñadores num-inicial-leñadores  
  [
    set color red
    set shape "X"
    set size 5  
    set energía random (1 * leñadores-energía-de-arboles)
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
  ]
  
  reset-ticks
end 



;;NEXT UNDERSTAND GO....

to ir
  if not any? arboles [ stop ]
  
  ask arboles [
    mover
    comer-suelo
    quizás-morir
    reproducir-arboles
  ]
  
  ask leñadores [
    mover
   
    cazar-arboles
    quizás-morir
    
  ]
  
  ask patches [
    crecer-suelo
  ]
  
  tick
end 




;;acá todos los comportamientos

to mover  
  rt random 50
  lt random 50
  fd 1
  set energía energía - 1
end 

to comer-suelo
  
  if pcolor = green [
    set pcolor brown
    set crecimiento 0
    set energía energía + arboles-energía-de-suelo  
  ]
end 

to reproducir-arboles  
    if random 10 < probabilidad-repro-arboles [  
      set energía (energía / 2)                
      hatch 1 [ set heading random-float 360 ]   
    ]
end 

to reproducir-leñadores  ;; wolf procedure
    if random 100 < probabilidad-repro-leñadores [  
      set energía (energía / 2)               
      hatch 1 [ set heading random-float 360  ]  
    ]
end 

to cazar-arboles  ;; wolf procedure
  let prey one-of arboles-here                    
  if prey != nobody                            
    [ ask prey [ die ]                         
      set energía energía + leñadores-energía-de-arboles ] 
end 

to quizás-morir  
  
  if energía < 10 [ die ]
end 

to crecer-suelo
  if crecimiento < 10 [
    set crecimiento crecimiento + 1
  ]
  if crecimiento = 10 [
    set pcolor green 
  ]
end 

There is only one version of this model, created over 4 years ago by Antonio De Jesus Cruz Salvador.

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