MIHS.zika.TPT

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1 collaborator

Tuvia Reback (Author)

NAMES

Pavel Batalov Timothy Yung Tuvia Reback Period Five

INFO

We created this Zika Virus model to simulate the spread of the disease between humans and mosquitoes. We have created various sliders that allow the user of the model to alter the environment. Changing the temperature of the environment directly affects reproduction in mosquitoes, and can have a huge impact upon the spread of the virus. Another slider that can affect infection rate is the initial amount of infected mosquitoes.

Our Zika virus simulation utilizes two populations, humans (which asexually reproduce one child at a time) and female mosquitoes (the only ones that bite). As the model passes, variations occur and eventually there are 4 of categories of “agents”: infected humans, uninfected humans, infected mosquitos, and uninfected mosquitoes. In our model the disease spreads from humans to mosquitoes and mosquitoes to humans, however the system does not allow humans to give the Zika virus to each other. In reality, the majority of the Zika virus being transmitted between humans is through sex. We decided against including this in our model under the assumption that the humans are aware they have Zika and know not to have sex. However, infected people are unable to be cured of Zika because we have assumed that they are in a poor area that offers no medical support. Thus, our model portrays an environment in which all humans eventually die out. Although this is obviously innacurate, it allows our model to precisley show how fast Zika spreads under different environments: something tht would be much harder to pinpoint if the agents were being contantly cured.

When the setup button is activated, the default numbers of humans begins at 100, as well as mosquitos. The numbers ofmosquitoes can be adjusted with a slider ranging from 50-200, with the same functionality for the humans. The Zika virus is initially spread through a select population of infected mosquitos, spreading Zika to uninfected humans, Humans infected with Zika are then “unable” to reproduce, as Zika deforms human children far beyond the realm of survival and they are not the focus of our model. The mosquito population will continue to survive, and they reproduce faster than humans.

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breed [people person]
breed [mosquitoes mosquito]
people-own [energy infection]
mosquitoes-own [menergy minfection]

to setup
  clear-all
  ask patches [ set pcolor green ]
  set-default-shape people "person"
  create-people initial-number-people
  [
    set color blue
    set size 2
    set label-color blue - 2
    set energy random 400 + random-float 200
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
  ]
  set-default-shape mosquitoes "bug"
  create-mosquitoes initial-number-clean
  [
    set color black
    set size 1
    set menergy random 100 + random-float 100
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
  ]
  create-mosquitoes initial-number-infected
  [
    set minfection 1
    set color red
    set size 1
    set menergy random 100 + random-float 100
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
  ]
  reset-ticks
end 

to go
    ask people [
    reproduce-people
    move-people
    set energy energy - 1
    catch-mosquitoes
    death-people
    color-infection
  ]
  ask mosquitoes [
    reproduce-mosquitoes
    move-mosquitoes
    set menergy menergy - 1
    catch-people
    death-mosquitoes
    color-minfection

  ]
  tick
end 

to move-people
rt random 50
lt random 50
fd 1
end 

to move-mosquitoes
  rt random 50
  lt random 50
  fd (temperature / 10)
end 

to catch-people
  let prey one-of people-here
if minfection = 1 [
  if prey != nobody
    [ ask prey [ set infection  1 ]
    ]
]
end 

to catch-mosquitoes
  let deus-vult one-of mosquitoes-here
if infection = 1 [
  if deus-vult != nobody
    [ ask deus-vult [ set minfection  1 ]
    ]
]
end 

to reproduce-people
  if infection = 0 [
   if energy <= 50 [
     if energy >= 49
    [set energy random 400 + random-float 200
    hatch 1 [rt random-float 360 fd 1]
    set energy 48.9
    ]
   ]
  ]
end 

to reproduce-mosquitoes
   if menergy <= 11 [
     if menergy >= 10
    [set menergy random 100 + random-float 100
    hatch 1 [rt random-float 360 fd 1]
    set menergy 9.9
    ]
   ]
end 

to death-people
  ask people [
    if energy < 0 [die]]
end 

to death-mosquitoes
  ask mosquitoes [
    if menergy < 0 [die]]
end 

to color-infection
if infection = 1 [
  set color red
]
end 

to color-minfection
if minfection = 1 [
  set color red
]
end

There are 2 versions of this model.

		Uploaded by	When	Description	Download
		Tuvia Reback	almost 9 years ago	.	Download this version
		Tuvia Reback	almost 9 years ago	Initial upload	Download this version

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