Reactive voters model v1.0

globals [
  DRecGen ;; running record of general election victories and losses, Democrats
  RRecGen ;; running record of general election victories and losses, Republicans
  DCur ;; result of current election, Democrats
  RCur ;; result of current election, Republicans
  DVotes ;; current number of electoral votes for Democrats
  RVotes ;; current number of electoral votes for Republicans
  D9616gen ;; general election outcomes 1996-2016 for model validation and parameter search (Democrat: lose = 0, win = 1)
  globalfit ;; model fit based on correspondence between model-generated data and 1996-2016 historical data; higher is better
  globalpopfit ;; model fit based on mean squared difference between popular vote outcomes and predictions
]

patches-own [
  Abbr ;; 2-letter state abbreviation
  DMax ;; total population of Democratic voters in state
  RMax ;; total population of Republican voters in state
  votes ;; number of electoral votes of state
  DRecSt ;; running record of Dem's wins and losses
  RRecSt ;; running record of Repub's wins and losses
  PctD ;; percentage of Democrat voters in state who will vote
  PctR ;; percentage of Republican voters in state who will vote
  Dout ;; outcome for the Democratic candidate in state
  Rout ;; outcome for the Republican candidate in state
  Dpopout ;; popular votes for the Democratic candidate in state
  Rpopout ;; popular votes for the Republican candidate in state
  D9616 ;; state election outcomes 1996-2016 for model validation and parameter search (Democrat: lose = 0, win = 1)
  Dpop9616 ;; state popular votes, 1996–2016
  Rpop9616 ;; state popular vote, 1996–2016
  pfit ;; boolean comparison of state outcome to historical outcome, 0 or 1
  popfit ;; running mean squared error of popular votes across all states
]

to setup
  clear-all
  reset-ticks
  hist-gen ;; initiates general election with historical starting values, 1984–1992 elections
  hist-state ;; initates each state with historical starting values, 1984–1992 elections
  valid-state ;; import records of 1996–2016 state outcomes for model validation
  valid-gen ;; import records of 1996–2016 general election outcomes for model validation
  ask patches [
    set plabel-color white
    set plabel abbr
    set pfit 1
    set popfit 0
  ]
  color-patches
end 

to go
  ;; states look back at general election record and adjust current vote %
  look-gen
  ;; states look back at state election record and adjust current vote %
  look-state
  ;; all states adjust their current vote % based on growth-constant
  fixed-change
  ;; when cap-growth? switch is ON: ensure percent of partisan voters doesn't exceed 100% (i.e. historically observed maximum turnout)
  check-range
  ;; vote and determine state + general winner
  vote
  ;; visualize state voting
  color-patches
  ;; calculate model fit depending on model outcomes and add to model fit for running total
  if ticks < 6 [ model-fit ]
  ;; each tick = 1 4-year election cycle
  tick
end 

;; look back at general election record and adjust current vote %

to look-gen
  ask patches [
    set PctD PctD + ( ( last DRecGen * react-gen-win ) ;; decrease voting for winning
                  +   ( last RRecGen * react-gen-loss ) ;; increase voting for losing
                  ;;+   ( last RRecGen * ( item (length RRecGen - 1) RRecGen ) * react-2x-gen-loss ) ;; increase voting for losing twice in a row
      )
    set PctR PctR + ( ( last RRecGen * react-gen-win ) ;; decrease voting for winning
                  +   ( last DRecGen * react-gen-loss ) ;; increase voting for losing
                  ;;+   ( last DRecGen * ( item (length DRecGen - 1) RRecGen ) * react-2x-gen-loss ) ;; increase voting for losing
      )
  ]
end 

;; look back at state election record and adjust current vote %

to look-state
  ask patches [
    set PctD PctD + ( ( last DRecSt * react-st-win )  ;; decrease voting for winning
                  +   ( last RRecSt  * react-st-loss ) ) ;; increase voting for losing
    set PctR PctR + ( ( last RRecSt * react-st-win ) ;; decrease voting for winning
                  +   ( last DRecSt * react-st-loss ) ) ;; increase voting for losing
  ]
end 

;; all states adjust their current vote % based on growth-constant

to fixed-change
  ask patches [
    set PctD PctD + growth-constant
    set PctR PctR + growth-constant
  ]
end 

;; ensure that percent of partisan voters are within range 0–1
;; if cap-growth? is FALSE, percent is allowed to exceed 1

to check-range
  ask patches [
     if cap-growth? [
      if PctD > 1 [ set PctD 1 ]
      if PctR > 1 [ set PctR 1 ] ]

    if PctD < 0 [
      set PctD 0 ]
    if PctR < 0 [
      set PctR 0 ]
  ]
end 

;; calculate state votes to determine winner at state level, allocate electoral votes, and determine general election winner

to vote
  ask patches [
    set Dpopout ( PctD * DMax )
    set Rpopout ( PctR * RMax )
  ;; calculate D + R votes and determine state winner
    ifelse Dpopout > Rpopout [
      ;;dems win
      set Dout 1
      set Rout 0
    ] [
      ;;repubs win
      set Dout 0
      set Rout 1
    ]

  ;; just in case a state's votes are tied, which should happen very rarely if ever, flip a coin for the winner
      if Dpopout = Rpopout [
        let coin random 1
        ifelse coin = 1 [
        ;;dems win
        set Dout 1
        set Rout 0
        ] [
        ;;repubs win
        set Dout 0
        set Rout 1
      ]
      ]

   ;; append state winner to state winner records (DRecSt, RRecSt)
      set DRecSt lput Dout DRecSt
      set RRecSt lput Rout RRecSt
  ]

  ;; allocate electoral votes to general election, determine general election winner, and append general election winner to general winner records (DRecGen, RRecGen)
    ;; sum of all states (Dout * votes) vs sum of (Rout * votes)
  set DVotes sum [Dout * votes] of patches
  set RVotes sum [Rout * votes] of patches
  ifelse DVotes > RVotes [
    ;;dems win
    set DRecGen lput 1 DRecGen
    set RRecGen lput 0 RRecGen
    set DCur 1
    set RCur 0
  ] [
    ;;rpubs win
    set DRecGen lput 0 DRecGen
    set RRecGen lput 1 RRecGen
    set DCur 0
    set RCur 1
  ]
end 

;; color patches to visualize state level outcomes, blue = Dem, red = Repub

to color-patches
  ask patches [
  ifelse Dout = 1 [
    set pcolor blue ] [
    set pcolor red
  ]
  ]
end 

;; seed model with historical general election data

to hist-gen
  ;;set historical general election record, from 1984 (50) to 1992 (52)
  set DRecGen [ 0 0 1 ]
  set RRecGen [ 1 1 0 ]
  ;;set sitting president (52)
  set DCur 1
  set RCur 0
end 

;; seed model with historical state outcome data

to hist-state
  ask patches [
   if pxcor = 0 [
      ;; set first column of states (AK–KS)
      if pycor = 16 [ set Abbr "AK" set Dmax 123594 set Rmax 193841 set votes 3 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.633477353269576 set PctR 0.526204466547325 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 15 [ set Abbr "AL" set Dmax 813479 set Rmax 1318255 set votes 9 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.84830708598501 set PctR 0.610111852410952 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 14 [ set Abbr "AR" set Dmax 505823 set Rmax 684872 set votes 6 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 1 set PctR 0.492535831513042 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 13 [ set Abbr "AZ" set Dmax 1161167 set Rmax 1252401 set votes 11 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.467676053487569 set PctR 0.456791395088314 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 12 [ set Abbr "CA" set Dmax 8753792 set Rmax 5509826 set votes 55 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.585040745770519 set PctR 0.65892716031323 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 11 [ set Abbr "CO" set Dmax 1338870 set Rmax 1202484 set votes 9 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.470307796873483 set PctR 0.468072756061619 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 10 [ set Abbr "CT" set Dmax 997772 set Rmax 693826 set votes 7 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.683841599082756 set PctR 0.833513013349168 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 9 [ set Abbr "DC" set Dmax 282830 set Rmax 21381 set votes 3 set DRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set PctD 0.68104161510448 set PctR 0.968055750432627 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 8 [ set Abbr "DE" set Dmax 255459 set Rmax 185127 set votes 3 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.493445132095561 set PctR 0.552663846980721 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 7 [ set Abbr "FL" set Dmax 4504975 set Rmax 4617886 set votes 29 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.460113097186999 set PctR 0.470628768228579 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 6 [ set Abbr "GA" set Dmax 1877963 set Rmax 2089104 set votes 16 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.53726617617067 set PctR 0.476401366327382 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 5 [ set Abbr "HI" set Dmax 325871 set Rmax 194191 set votes 3 set DRecSt [ 0 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 0 0 ] set PctD 0.550248411181112 set PctR 0.704574362354589 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 4 [ set Abbr "IA" set Dmax 828940 set Rmax 800983 set votes 6 set DRecSt [ 0 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 0 0 ] set PctD 0.707352763770599 set PctR 0.630339220682586 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 3 [ set Abbr "ID" set Dmax 236440 set Rmax 420911 set votes 4 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.579483166976823 set PctR 0.481443820665176 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 2 [ set Abbr "IL" set Dmax 3419348 set Rmax 2345946 set votes 20 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.717490585924568 set PctR 0.739188370064784 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 1 [ set Abbr "IN" set Dmax 1374039 set Rmax 1557286 set votes 11 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.617464278670402 set PctR 0.635320037552511 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 0 [ set Abbr "KS" set Dmax 514765 set Rmax 736456 set votes 6 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.758470369974649 set PctR 0.610967932911131 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
    ]
    if pxcor = 1 [
     ;; set second column of states (KY–NV)
      if pycor = 16 [ set Abbr "KY" set Dmax 751985 set Rmax 1202971 set votes 8 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.884464450753672 set PctR 0.513044786615804 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 15 [ set Abbr "LA" set Dmax 927837 set Rmax 1178638 set votes 8 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.879433564300626 set PctR 0.622231762424086 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 14 [ set Abbr "MA" set Dmax 1995196 set Rmax 1188314 set votes 11 set DRecSt [ 0 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 0 0 ] set PctD 0.660906998610663 set PctR 0.677463195754657 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 13 [ set Abbr "MD" set Dmax 1677928 set Rmax 1024703 set votes 10 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.589161751874931 set PctR 0.690047750421342 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 12 [ set Abbr "ME" set Dmax 421923 set Rmax 335593 set votes 4 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.624331927863615 set PctR 0.615340606031711 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 11 [ set Abbr "MI" set Dmax 2872579 set Rmax 2313746 set votes 16 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.65139444380816 set PctR 0.672044381708277 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 10 [ set Abbr "MN" set Dmax 1573354 set Rmax 1346695 set votes 10 set DRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set PctD 0.648930247102686 set PctR 0.555315791623196 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 9 [ set Abbr "MO" set Dmax 1441911 set Rmax 1594511 set votes 10 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.730886302968769 set PctR 0.508719601181804 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 8 [ set Abbr "MS" set Dmax 562949 set Rmax 724597 set votes 6 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.711002239989768 set PctR 0.673192133006347 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 7 [ set Abbr "MT" set Dmax 231667 set Rmax 279240 set votes 3 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.666935731027725 set PctR 0.516426729694886 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 6 [ set Abbr "NC" set Dmax 2189316 set Rmax 2362631 set votes 15 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.508853906882332 set PctR 0.480253158449203 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 5 [ set Abbr "ND" set Dmax 141278 set Rmax 216794 set votes 3 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.701935191608035 set PctR 0.628449126820853 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 4 [ set Abbr "NE" set Dmax 333319 set Rmax 512814 set votes 5 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.652060038581659 set PctR 0.671483227836994 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 3 [ set Abbr "NH" set Dmax 384826 set Rmax 345790 set votes 4 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.543206540098642 set PctR 0.585569276150265 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 2 [ set Abbr "NJ" set Dmax 2215422 set Rmax 1670003 set votes 14 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.648276490889772 set PctR 0.812492552408589 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 1 [ set Abbr "NM" set Dmax 472422 set Rmax 376930 set votes 5 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.553778189838746 set PctR 0.564624731382485 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 0 [ set Abbr "NV" set Dmax 539260 set Rmax 512058 set votes 6 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.350754737974261 set PctR 0.343375164532143 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
    ]
    if pxcor = 2 [
      ;; set third row of states (NY–WY)
       if pycor = 16 [ set Abbr "NY" set Dmax 4804945 set Rmax 2962567 set votes 29 set DRecSt [ 0 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 0 0 ] set PctD 0.716855239758207 set PctR 0.792099891749284 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 15 [ set Abbr "OH" set Dmax 2940044 set Rmax 2859768 set votes 18 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.675140235996468 set PctR 0.662399886983839 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 14 [ set Abbr "OK" set Dmax 503966 set Rmax 960165 set votes 7 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.938686339951505 set PctR 0.617528237334208 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 13 [ set Abbr "OR" set Dmax 1037291 set Rmax 866831 set votes 7 set DRecSt [ 0 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 0 0 ] set PctD 0.598977528967281 set PctR 0.548846314910288 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 12 [ set Abbr "PA" set Dmax 3276363 set Rmax 2970733 set votes 20 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.683429766481919 set PctR 0.603164606176321 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 11 [ set Abbr "RI" set Dmax 296571 set Rmax 180543 set votes 4 set DRecSt [ 0 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 0 0 ] set PctD 0.719227436263155 set PctR 0.728939920129831 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 10 [ set Abbr "SC" set Dmax 865941 set Rmax 1155389 set votes 9 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.553749042948654 set PctR 0.499837716994017 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 9 [ set Abbr "SD" set Dmax 170924 set Rmax 232584 set votes 3 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.730663920806908 set PctR 0.587822034189798 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 8 [ set Abbr "TN" set Dmax 1087437 set Rmax 1522925 set votes 11 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.858459846409493 set PctR 0.552423789746705 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 7 [ set Abbr "TX" set Dmax 3877868 set Rmax 4685047 set votes 36 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.588419977162709 set PctR 0.532773950826961 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 6 [ set Abbr "UT" set Dmax 327670 set Rmax 740600 set votes 6 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.559797967467269 set PctR 0.435635970834459 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 5 [ set Abbr "VA" set Dmax 1981473 set Rmax 1822522 set votes 13 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.524180748362456 set PctR 0.631277427652451 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
      if pycor = 4 [ set Abbr "VT" set Dmax 219262 set Rmax 121180 set votes 3 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.609280221835065 set PctR 0.727199207790064 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 3 [ set Abbr "WA" set Dmax 1755396 set Rmax 1304894 set votes 8 set DRecSt [ 0 0 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 0 ] set PctD 0.565706541429968 set PctR 0.560378850695919 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 2 [ set Abbr "WI" set Dmax 1677211 set Rmax 1478120 set votes 10 set DRecSt [ 0 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 0 0 ] set PctD 0.620712599666947 set PctR 0.629756041458068 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 1 [ set Abbr "WV" set Dmax 331001 set Rmax 489371 set votes 5 set DRecSt [ 0 1 1 ] set RRecSt [ 1 0 0 ] set PctD 1 set PctR 0.494459213970587 set Dout 1 set Rout 0 ]
      if pycor = 0 [ set Abbr "WY" set Dmax 82868 set Rmax 174419 set votes 3 set DRecSt [ 0 0 0 ] set RRecSt [ 1 1 1 ] set PctD 0.822512912101173 set PctR 0.454921768843991 set Dout 0 set Rout 1 ]
    ]
  ]
end 

;; import 1996-2016 state election outcomes to find model parameters with BehaviorSearch that best predict these outcomes

to valid-state
  ask patches [
   if pxcor = 0 [
      ;; set first column of states (AK–KS)
      if pycor = 16 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 80380 79004 111025 123594 122640 116454 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 122746 167398 190889 193841 164676 163387 ] ]
      if pycor = 15 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 662165 692611 693933 813479 795696 729547 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 769044 941173 1176394 1266546 1255925 1318255 ] ]
      if pycor = 14 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 475171 422768 469953 422310 394409 380494 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 325416 472940 572898 638017 647744 684872 ] ]
      if pycor = 13 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 653288 685341 893524 1034707 1025232 1161167 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 622073 781652 1104294 1230111 1233654 1252401 ] ]
      if pycor = 12 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 5119835 5861203 6745485 8274473 7854285 8753792 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 3828380 4567429 5509826 5011781 4839958 4483814 ] ]
      if pycor = 11 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 671152 738227 1001732 1288633 1323102 1338870 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 691848 883748 1101255 1073629 1185243 1202484 ] ]
      if pycor = 10 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 735740 816015 857488 997772 905083 897572 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 483109 561094 693826 629428 634892 673215 ] ]
      if pycor = 9 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 158220 171923 202970 245800 267070 282830 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 17339 18073 21256 17367 21381 12723 ] ]
      if pycor = 8 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 140355 180068 200152 255459 242584 235603 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 99062 137288 171660 152374 165484 185127 ] ]
      if pycor = 7 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 1 1 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 2546870 2912253 3583544 4282074 4237756 4504975 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 2244536 2912790 3964522 4045624 4163447 4617886 ] ]
      if pycor = 6 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1053849 1116230 1366149 1844123 1773827 1877963 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1080843 1419720 1914254 2048759 2078688 2089104 ] ]
      if pycor = 5 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 205012 205286 231708 325871 306658 266891 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 113943 137845 194191 120566 121015 128847 ] ]
      if pycor = 4 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 0 1 1 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 620258 638517 741898 828940 822544 653669 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 492644 634373 751957 682379 730617 800983 ] ]
      if pycor = 3 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 165443 138637 181098 236440 212787 189765 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 256595 336937 409235 403012 420911 409055 ] ]
      if pycor = 2 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 2341744 2589026 2891550 3419348 3019512 3090729 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1587021 2019421 2345946 2031179 2135216 2146015 ] ]
      if pycor = 1 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 1 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 887424 901980 969011 1374039 1152887 1033126 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1006693 1245836 1479438 1345648 1420543 1557286 ] ]
      if pycor = 0 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 387659 399276 434993 514765 440726 427005 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 583245 622332 736456 699655 692634 671018 ] ]
          ]
    if pxcor = 1 [
     ;; set second column of states (KY–NV)
      if pycor = 16 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 636614 638898 712733 751985 679370 628854 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 623283 872492 1069439 1048462 1087190 1202971 ] ]
      if pycor = 15 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 927837 792344 820299 782989 809141 780154 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 712586 927871 1102169 1148275 1152262 1178638 ] ]
      if pycor = 14 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1571763 1616487 1803800 1904097 1921290 1995196 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 718107 878502 1071109 1108854 1188314 1090893 ] ]
      if pycor = 13 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 966207 1145782 1334493 1629467 1677844 1677928 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 681530 813797 1024703 959862 971869 943169 ] ]
      if pycor = 12 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 312788 319951 396842 421923 401306 357735 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 186378 286616 330201 295273 292276 335593 ] ]
      if pycor = 11 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1989653 2170418 2479183 2872579 2564569 2268839 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1481212 1953139 2313746 2048639 2115256 2279543 ] ]
      if pycor = 10 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1120438 1168266 1445014 1573354 1546167 1367716 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 766476 1109659 1346695 1275409 1320225 1322951 ] ]
      if pycor = 9 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1025935 1111138 1259171 1441911 1223796 1071068 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 890016 1189924 1455713 1445814 1482440 1594511 ] ]
      if pycor = 8 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 394022 404614 458094 554662 562949 485131 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 439838 572844 684981 724597 710746 700714 ] ]
      if pycor = 7 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 167922 137126 173710 231667 201839 177709 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 179652 240178 266063 242763 267928 279240 ] ]
      if pycor = 6 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 1 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1107849 1257692 1525849 2142651 2178391 2189316 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1225938 1631163 1961166 2128474 2270395 2362631 ] ]
      if pycor = 5 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 106905 95284 111052 141278 124827 93758 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 125050 174852 196651 168601 188163 216794 ] ]
      if pycor = 4 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 236761 231780 254328 333319 302081 284494 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 363467 433862 512814 452979 475064 495961 ] ]
      if pycor = 3 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 246214 266348 340511 384826 369561 348526 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 196532 273559 331237 316534 329918 345790 ] ]
      if pycor = 2 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1652329 1788850 1911430 2215422 2125101 2148278 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1103078 1284173 1670003 1613207 1477568 1601933 ] ]
      if pycor = 1 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 0 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 273495 286783 370942 472422 415335 385234 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 232751 286417 376930 346832 335788 319667 ] ]
      if pycor = 0 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 203974 279978 397190 533736 531373 539260 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 199244 301575 418690 412827 463567 512058 ] ]
          ]
    if pxcor = 2 [
      ;; set third row of states (NY–WY)
      if pycor = 16 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 3756177 3942215 4314280 4804945 4485741 4556118 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1933492 2258577 2962567 2752771 2490431 2819533 ] ]
      if pycor = 15 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 1 1 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 2148222 2186190 2741167 2940044 2827709 2394164 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1859883 2351209 2859768 2677820 2661437 2841005 ] ]
      if pycor = 14 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 488105 474276 503966 502496 443547 420375 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 582315 744337 959792 960165 891325 949136 ] ]
      if pycor = 13 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 649641 720342 943163 1037291 970488 1002106 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 538152 713577 866831 738475 754175 782403 ] ]
      if pycor = 12 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 2215819 2485967 2938095 3276363 2990274 2926441 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1801169 2281127 2793847 2655885 2680434 2970733 ] ]
      if pycor = 11 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 233050 249508 259765 296571 279677 252525 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 104683 130555 169046 165391 157204 180543 ] ]
      if pycor = 10 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 506283 565561 661699 862449 865941 855373 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 573458 785937 937974 1034896 1071645 1155389 ] ]
      if pycor = 9 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 139333 118804 149244 170924 145039 117458 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 150543 190700 232584 203054 210610 227721 ] ]
      if pycor = 8 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 909146 981720 1036477 1087437 960709 870695 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 863530 1061949 1384375 1479178 1462330 1522925 ] ]
      if pycor = 7 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 2459683 2433746 2832704 3528633 3308124 3877868 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 2736167 3799639 4526917 4479328 4569843 4685047 ] ]
      if pycor = 6 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 221633 203053 241199 327670 251813 310676 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 361911 515096 663742 596030 740600 515231 ] ]
      if pycor = 5 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1091060 1217290 1454742 1959532 1971820 1981473 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 1138350 1437490 1716959 1725005 1822522 1769443 ] ]
      if pycor = 4 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 137894 149022 184067 219262 199239 178573 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 80352 119775 121180 98974 92698 95369 ] ]
      if pycor = 3 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1123323 1247652 1510201 1750848 1755396 1742718 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 840712 1108864 1304894 1229216 1290670 1221747 ] ]
      if pycor = 2 [ set D9616 [ 1 1 1 1 1 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 1071971 1242987 1489504 1677211 1620985 1382536 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 845029 1237279 1478120 1262393 1407966 1405284 ] ]
      if pycor = 1 [ set D9616 [ 1 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 327812 295497 326541 303857 238269 188794 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 233946 336475 423778 397466 417655 489371 ] ]
      if pycor = 0 [ set D9616 [ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]  set Dpop9616 [ 77934 60481 70776 82868 69286 55973 ]  set Rpop9616 [ 105388 147947 167629 164958 170962 174419 ] ]
    ]
  ]
end 

;; import 1996-2016 general election outcomes to find model parameters with BehaviorSearch that best predict these outcomes

to valid-gen
  set D9616gen [ 1 0 0 1 1 0 ]
end 

;; PROC TO CALCULATE MODEL FIT: GENERAL OUTCOME + STATE OUTCOME

to model-fit
    ask patches [
    ;; boolean (1 or 0) for correctly predicting state outcome
    ifelse ( Dout = ( item ticks D9616 ) ) [
      set pfit 1 ] [
      set pfit 0 ]
    ;; mean of squared error between predicted and historical pular votes at state level
    set popfit ( sqrt ( ( Dpopout - ( item ticks Dpop9616 ) ) ^ 2 ) / 510
               + sqrt ( ( Rpopout - ( item ticks Rpop9616 ) ) ^ 2 ) / 510 )
    ]
  ;; each general election outcome that concords with historical record adds 1000 to model fit
  if ( DCur = ( item ticks D9616gen ) ) [
      set globalfit globalfit + 1000 ]

  ;; each state election outcome that concords with historical record adds 1 to model fit
  set globalfit globalfit + sum [pfit] of patches

  ;; running total of sum of mean squared error between predicted and historical pular votes at state level
  set globalpopfit globalpopfit + sum [popfit] of patches
end