Dengue fever (virus)

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WHAT IS IT?

This is a model that resembles and simulates the outcome of the dengue virus. This netlogo virus project could potentially be used by public health policy experts to notice the effects of the disease. Several variables are available to the user, this can enable them to change the conditions of the model and see what the outcome of these alterations may be.

HOW IT WORKS

There are a range of variables that can be changed in this model. These may vary as the effect of the disease can be changed, the environment and care that is provided to the people in the simulation can also be altered. There are sliders that are placed on the left hand side of the diagram, these allow the user to change the set of variables and make a number of predictions.

HOW TO USE IT

The sliders are classified, these are variables that can be changed and used to adhere the outcome of the simulation. Each slider is given a title and can be identified by their names. The graph on the right hand side of the model will determine how many people are infected by the dengue disease. The results on this graph will constantly change throughout the simulation as several patients will recover from the disease.

THINGS TO NOTICE

Some of the key elements in this diagram are the variables. The percentage change and the risk at which the people are, are interesting factors that I would recommend noticing. The immunity of the people who have already had the disease is also something that I would like to put into consideration as the infection of the disease is restrained (limited through the procedures that were made in the "code"). Setting limitations in a simulated model can become challenging but it is also vital as it may dramatically change the result of each simulation.

THINGS TO TRY

Experimenting with the model can be fun as there are several variables that are at the disposal of the user. Changing the quantity of people that are spawned in the simulation can change the results of the model as the number of infected people/"turtles" is either increased or decreased. Increasing the reproduction of bugs can adhere the outcome of the model as there could be a "bug" apocalypse.

EXTENDING THE MODEL

Changing the numeration of the variables could make the model more realistic. Using accurate values and alternating the percentage of "risk" at which the people are could complicate the model but also make it match a realistic situation in which the disease (virus) is spreading.

NETLOGO FEATURES"

Some of the interesting features that I used in this model includes the use of problem decomposition. This is a technique used to break down procedures, to make these either easier to conceive or comprehend. Placing each procedure and classifying them in subcategories clarifies the code for the user and the programer. Forming my own variables facilitated my work and the understanding of the user as each factor was arranged and named from their function.

RELATED MODELS

The model named Disease Solo in the NetLogo Models Library resembles the simulation that I have created as we observe the contamination and outspread of a disease. The agent sets are different in each model although the concept and the spreading of the disease amongst people (multiple breeds) is similar.

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

https://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/dengue-fever-reference#1 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/dengue-fever/symptoms-causes/syc-20353078 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3381442/ https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dengue-and-severe-dengue https://www.who.int/denguecontrol/faq/en/index2.html

Comments and Questions

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Click to Run Model

breed [people person]
breed [bugs bug]
people-own [age gender immunityTime illnessTime]
bugs-own [age gender]

to setup
  ca
  create-people numPeopleblue [
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
    set shape "person"
    set color blue
    set size 2.5
  ]
  create-bugs numBugs [
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
    set shape "bug1"
    set color red
    set size 1.5
  ]

 create-people numPeoplered [
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
    set shape "person"
    set color red
     set age random maxAge
    set size 2.5
  ]

  ask n-of numHospitals patches [set pcolor white]
  reset-ticks
end 

to go
  tick
  moveEveryone
  spreadIllness
  Hospitals
  deathToPeople
  deathToBugs
  createMoreBugs
  healSpontanious
endOfillness
end 

to moveEveryone
  ask people [
    rt random 91 - 45 fd 1
  ]
  ask bugs [
    rt random 91 - 45 fd .5
  ]
end 

to spreadIllness
  ask people with [color = red]
  [
    ask people in-radius 1 with [color = blue][
      if (random 100 < chanceOfinfection) [
        if (immunityTime = 0) [set color red]
      ]
    ]
  ]
  ask bugs with [color = red]
  [
    ask people in-radius 1 with [color = blue][
      if (random 100 < chanceOfinfection) [
        if (immunityTime = 0) [set color red print "someone is infected"]
      ]
    ]
  ]
  ask people with [color = red]
  [
    ask bugs in-radius 1 with [color = blue][
      set color red
    ]
  ]
  ask bugs with [color = red]
  [
    ask bugs in-radius 1 with [color = blue][
      set color red
    ]
  ]
end 

to Hospitals
  ask people with [color = red and pcolor = white]
  [set color blue
    set immunityTime immunityDuration
    set illnessTime 0
  ]
end 

to deathToPeople
  ask people with [color = red][
   set age age + 1
    if (random maxAge = 0) [die]
  ]
end 

to deathToBugs
     ask bugs with [color = red][
   set age age + 1
    if (random bugsMaxage = 0) [die]
  ]
end 

to createMoreBugs
  if random 100 < percentageChangeOfBugProduction [
    create-bugs 1[
          setxy random-xcor random-ycor
    set shape "bug1"
    set color red
    set size 1.5
    ]
  ]
end 

to healSpontanious
  ask people with [color = red][
    if (random 100 < chanceOfrecovery) [
      set color blue
      set immunityTime immunityDuration
      set illnessTime 0
    ]
  ]
  ask people with [immunityTime > 0][
    set immunityTime (immunityTime - 1)
  ]
end 

to endOfillness
  ask people with [color = red][
    set illnessTime (illnessTime + 1)
    if (illnessTime > illnessDuration)
    [
      ifelse (random 100 < percentageMortality)
      [
        die
      ]
      [
            set color blue
      set immunityTime immunityDuration
        set illnessTime 0
      ]
    ]
  ]
end

There is only one version of this model, created almost 6 years ago by Zachary Descarries Gravel.

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