Covid_19_Intervention_Timing_Effects

Covid_19_Intervention_Timing_Effects preview image

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Default-person Eduardo Tapia (Author)

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globals [ lista %_infected %_recovered activated]
turtles-own [ marker mover]

to setup
  ca
  set lista []
  ask patches [ set pcolor white]
  ask patches with [ pycor = -50] [ set pcolor black]
  ask patches with [ pycor = -49] [ set pcolor black]
  ask patches with [ pycor = 50] [ set pcolor black]
  ask patches with [ pycor = 49] [ set pcolor black]
  ask patches with [ pxcor = -80] [ set pcolor black]
  ask patches with [ pxcor = -79] [ set pcolor black]
  ask patches with [ pxcor = 79] [ set pcolor black]
  ask patches with [ pxcor = 80] [ set pcolor black]
  ask n-of Population patches with [ pcolor = white ] [ sprout 1 [ set shape "circle" set color blue fd 0.5]]
  ask one-of turtles [ set color red set marker Recovery_time]
  ask turtles [ set mover 1] ; all can move
  set activated 1
  reset-ticks
end 

to go
  if (ticks = 500) [ stop ]
  move2
  spread_virus
  updatemaker
  %_infec
  which_action
  tick
end 

to which_action
  if (intervention = "nothing" ) []
  if (intervention = "focalized_quarantine_hard" ) [if (%_infected > Intervention_Timing and activated = 1) [ intervene_quarantine_hard] ]
  if (intervention = "focalized_quarantine_soft" ) [if (%_infected > Intervention_Timing and activated = 1) [ intervene_quarantine_soft] ]
  if (intervention = "social_distance_hard" ) [if (%_infected > Intervention_Timing and activated = 1) [social_distance_hard] ]
  if (intervention = "social_distance_soft" ) [if (%_infected > Intervention_Timing and activated = 1) [social_distance_soft] ]
  if (intervention = "close_borders_soft" ) [if (%_infected > Intervention_Timing and activated = 1) [close_b_soft] ]
  if (intervention = "close_borders_hard" ) [if (%_infected > Intervention_Timing and activated = 1) [close_b_hard] ]
end 

to %_infec
  set %_infected ((count turtles with [ color = red]) / (count turtles)) * 100
  set %_recovered ((count turtles with [ color = green]) / (count turtles)) * 100
end 

to updatemaker
  ask turtles with [ color = red ] [ set marker marker - 1 ]
  ask turtles with [ ( color = red OR color = yellow )  and marker < 0 ] [ set color green ]
end 

to spread_virus
  ask turtles with [ (color = red OR color = yellow) and marker > 0]
  [ if any? other turtles-here
    [ let otro one-of turtles-here
      let colorotro [color] of otro
      ifelse (colorotro = green)
      [ ]
      [
        let dado random-float 1
        ifelse(dado < Probability_of_being_asymptomatic)
        [ ask otro [ set color yellow set marker Recovery_time] ]
        [ ask otro [ set color red set marker Recovery_time] ]
      ]
    ]
  ]
end 

to move2
  ask turtles with [mover = 1] [
    let patcha [pcolor] of patch-ahead 1
    ifelse (patcha = black)
    [
      set heading heading + random 360
    ]

    [
     fd 1
    ]
  ]
end 

to intervene_quarantine_hard

  let aa (count (turtles-on patches with [ pxcor > 0 and pycor > 0 ]) with [ color = red ])
  set lista lput aa lista
  let bb (count (turtles-on patches with [ pxcor < 0 and pycor > 0 ]) with [ color = red ])
  set lista lput bb lista
  let cc (count (turtles-on patches with [ pxcor < 0 and pycor < 0 ]) with [ color = red ])
  set lista lput cc lista
  let dd (count (turtles-on patches with [ pxcor > 0 and pycor < 0 ]) with [ color = red ])
  set lista lput dd lista

  let maximo max lista

  let posicion position maximo lista
  ;print posicion
  if (posicion = 0) [ask patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]]
  if (posicion = 1) [ask patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]]
  if (posicion = 2) [ask patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]]
  if (posicion = 3) [ask patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]]
  set activated 0
end 

to intervene_quarantine_soft

  let aa (count (turtles-on patches with [ pxcor > 0 and pycor > 0 ]) with [ color = red ])
  set lista lput aa lista
  let bb (count (turtles-on patches with [ pxcor < 0 and pycor > 0 ]) with [ color = red ])
  set lista lput bb lista
  let cc (count (turtles-on patches with [ pxcor < 0 and pycor < 0 ]) with [ color = red ])
  set lista lput cc lista
  let dd (count (turtles-on patches with [ pxcor > 0 and pycor < 0 ]) with [ color = red ])
  set lista lput dd lista

  let maximo max lista
  let posicion position maximo lista
  if (posicion = 0) [ask patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]]
  if (posicion = 0) [ask n-of 3 patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor white ]]
  if (posicion = 1) [ask patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]]
  if (posicion = 1) [ask n-of 3 patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor white ]]
  if (posicion = 2) [ask patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]]
  if (posicion = 2) [ask n-of 3 patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor white ]]
  if (posicion = 3) [ask patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]]
  if (posicion = 3) [ask n-of 3 patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor white ]]
  set activated 0
end 

to social_distance_hard
  ask n-of ((95 * Population) / 100 ) turtles [ set mover 0 ]
  set activated 0
end 

to social_distance_soft
  ask n-of ((80 * Population) / 100 ) turtles [ set mover 0 ]
  set activated 0
end 

to close_b_hard
  ask patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]
  ask patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]
  ask patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]
  ask patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]
  set activated 0
end 

to close_b_soft
  ask patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]
  ask n-of 3 patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor white ]
  ask patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]
  ask n-of 3 patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor > 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor white ]
  ask patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]
  ask n-of 3 patches with [ (pxcor <= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor white ]
  ask patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor black ]
  ask n-of 3 patches with [ (pxcor >= 0 and pycor = 0) OR (pycor < 0 and pxcor = 0) ] [ set pcolor white ]
  set activated 0
end 

There is only one version of this model, created 4 months ago by Eduardo Tapia.

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