Infectious disease outbreak (COVID-19)-transmission and mortality

Infectious disease outbreak (COVID-19)-transmission and mortality preview image

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Screen_shot_2018-02-02_at_12.53.50_pm lin xiang (Author)

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covid19 

Tagged by lin xiang 11 months ago

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WHAT IS IT?

This model simulates the infectious disease outbreak dynamics in a population influenced by different transmission rate, mortality, and human mobility.

HOW IT WORKS

The model starts with a human population in which all people are healthy but susceptible (green color) to the incoming pathogen. Once an infected case (orange color) appears in the population, it will pass the disease to one of the susceptible people nearby (within a radius of 1.5) at the defined transmission rate. The infected people are able to transmit the disease for 14 days. By the 15th day of being infected, the infected people either die (disappear from the model) at the defined mortality or recover and become immunized (blue color).

Buttons, Sliders, and Switches:

  • The "population-size" slider is self-explanatory. So are the buttons of "Set up/Reset". "Run/Pause", and "Run a day".

  • The "Mobility" slider controls how far an individual can move each time. Smaller mobility means people come into contact with less other people.

  • The "Transmission-rate" slider determines how likely a susceptible person is infected when exposed to the disease.

  • The "Mortality" slider determines how likely the infected people die on the 15th day.

  • The "+1 infected Case" button adds infected person into the population.

  • The "Watch 1 infected Case" button allows you to focus on a single infected person. You may see this person eventually recover or die.

HOW TO USE IT

  1. First choose the factors, such as population size, transmission rate, etc.

  2. Click on "Set up/Reset", then "Run/Pause". The model is initially set to stop on the 180th day. Change the number in "Time" if you want to run the model for a longer or shorter time period.

  3. Observe the infection changes in population in the plot and monitors.

  4. Use "Run one day" to run the model in a controlled way and collecting day-by-day data.

RELATED MODELS

Find this model series at http://3dsciencemodeling.com

  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-Basic Phenomenon
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-Transmission and mortality
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-Population Comparison
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-HealthCare, Isolation and Quarantine
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-vaccination

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Dr. Lin Xiang (lin.xiang@uky.edu) created this module at the University of Kentucky in 2020. If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.

Xiang, L. (2020). Infectious Disease Outbreak-Transmission and Mortality. Department of STEM Education, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.

Comments and Questions

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turtles-own [days]
Patches-own [ ]
Globals [watching LM max-daily-cases]

to setup
  clear-all
  setup-turtles
  setup-patches
  set LM 0
  reset-ticks
end 

to setup-turtles
  create-turtles Population-size
  [set color 68
    set size 1.75
    set shape "person-1"
    set days 0
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
  ]
end 

to setup-patches
  ask patches [set pcolor 0]
end 

to go

  if ticks > time [stop]
  move
  transmission
  sickness
  find-max-daily-cases
  tick
end 

to move
  ask turtles
  [right random 360 forward mobility]
end 

to add-an-infected-person
  create-turtles 1
  [set color orange
    set size 1.75
    set shape "person-1"
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
  ]
end 

to transmission
  ask turtles with [color = orange]
  [
    let healthy-person one-of other turtles in-radius 1.5 with [color = 68]
    if healthy-person != nobody
    [ask healthy-person [
      if random 100 < Transmission-rate
      [set color orange]]]
  ]
end 

to sickness
  ask turtles with [color = orange]
  [set days days + 1
    if days >= 15
    [ifelse random 100 < mortality
      [ set LM LM + 1 die  ]
      [set color blue] ]
  ]
end 

to watch-an-infected-person
  watch one-of turtles with [color = orange]
end 

to find-max-daily-cases
  if count turtles with [color = orange ] > max-daily-cases        ;Count the infectious. If it is greater than the current record of max daily cases
  [set max-daily-cases count turtles with [color = orange ]]       ;update the max daily case
end 

There are 6 versions of this model.

Uploaded by When Description Download
lin xiang 12 days ago Add in max daily cases Download this version
lin xiang 12 days ago Add in max daily cases Download this version
lin xiang 11 months ago Add total deaths monitor Download this version
lin xiang 11 months ago fix the background Download this version
lin xiang 11 months ago add an adjustable time Download this version
lin xiang 11 months ago Initial upload Download this version

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