Infectious disease outbreak (COVID-19)-transmission and mortality
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WHAT IS IT?
This model simulates the infectious disease outbreak dynamics in a population influenced by different transmission rate, mortality, and human mobility.
HOW IT WORKS
The model starts with a human population in which all people are healthy but susceptible (green color) to the incoming pathogen. Once an infected case (orange color) appears in the population, it will pass the disease to one of the susceptible people nearby (within a radius of 1.5) at the defined transmission rate. The infected people are able to transmit the disease for 14 days. By the 15th day of being infected, the infected people either die (disappear from the model) at the defined mortality or recover and become immunized (blue color).
Buttons, Sliders, and Switches:
The "population-size" slider is self-explanatory. So are the buttons of "Set up/Reset". "Run/Pause", and "Run a day".
The "Mobility" slider controls how far an individual can move each time. Smaller mobility means people come into contact with less other people.
The "Transmission-rate" slider determines how likely a susceptible person is infected when exposed to the disease.
The "Mortality" slider determines how likely the infected people die on the 15th day.
The "+1 infected Case" button adds infected person into the population.
The "Watch 1 infected Case" button allows you to focus on a single infected person. You may see this person eventually recover or die.
HOW TO USE IT
First choose the factors, such as population size, transmission rate, etc.
Click on "Set up/Reset", then "Run/Pause". The model is initially set to stop on the 180th day. Change the number in "Time" if you want to run the model for a longer or shorter time period.
Observe the infection changes in population in the plot and monitors.
Use "Run one day" to run the model in a controlled way and collecting day-by-day data.
RELATED MODELS
Find this model series at http://3dsciencemodeling.com
- Infectious Disease Outbreak-Basic Phenomenon
- Infectious Disease Outbreak-Transmission and mortality
- Infectious Disease Outbreak-Population Comparison
- Infectious Disease Outbreak-HealthCare, Isolation and Quarantine
- Infectious Disease Outbreak-vaccination
CREDITS AND REFERENCES
Dr. Lin Xiang (lin.xiang@uky.edu) created this module at the University of Kentucky in 2020. If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.
Xiang, L. (2020). Infectious Disease Outbreak-Transmission and Mortality. Department of STEM Education, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.
Comments and Questions
;; ;; This model is developed by Dr. Lin Xiang at the University of Kentucky. Contact: lin.xiang@uky.edu ;; ;; If you see this page rather than a "download" button when downloading the model, click the "download" icon ;; in your browser to download this model file. ;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; turtles-own [days] Patches-own [ ] Globals [watching LM max-daily-cases] to setup clear-all setup-turtles setup-patches set LM 0 reset-ticks end to setup-turtles create-turtles Population-size [set color 68 set size 1.75 set shape "person-1" set days 0 setxy random-xcor random-ycor ] end to setup-patches ask patches [set pcolor 0] end to go if ticks > time [stop] move transmission sickness find-max-daily-cases tick end to move ask turtles [right random 360 forward mobility] end to add-an-infected-person create-turtles 1 [set color orange set size 1.75 set shape "person-1" setxy random-xcor random-ycor ] end to transmission ask turtles with [color = orange] [ let healthy-person one-of other turtles in-radius 1.5 with [color = 68] if healthy-person != nobody [ask healthy-person [ if random 100 < Transmission-rate [set color orange]]] ] end to sickness ask turtles with [color = orange] [set days days + 1 if days >= 15 [ifelse random 100 < mortality [ set LM LM + 1 die ] [set color blue] ] ] end to watch-an-infected-person watch one-of turtles with [color = orange] end to find-max-daily-cases if count turtles with [color = orange ] > max-daily-cases ;Count the infectious. If it is greater than the current record of max daily cases [set max-daily-cases count turtles with [color = orange ]] ;update the max daily case end
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