Infectious Disease Outbreak (COVID-19)-Basic Phenomenon

Infectious Disease Outbreak (COVID-19)-Basic Phenomenon preview image

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Screen_shot_2018-02-02_at_12.53.50_pm lin xiang (Author)

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WHAT IS IT?

This model simulates the basic phenomenon of infectious disease outbreak dynamics in a population.

HOW IT WORKS

The model starts with a human population in which all people are healthy but susceptible (green color) to the incoming pathogen. Once an infected case (orange color) appears in the population, s/he will pass the disease to one of the susceptible people nearby (within a radius of 1.5) at the defined transmission rate. The infected people are able to transmit the disease for 14 days. By the 15th day of being infected, the infected people either die (disappear from the model) at the defined mortality or recover and become immune (blue color).

To simplify the process, this model uses a fixed disease transmission rate and mortality rate, 90%, and 20%, respectively.

Buttons, Sliders, and Switches:

  • The "population size" slider is self-explanatory. So are the buttons of "Set up/Reset", "Run/Pause", and "Run a day".

  • The "+1 Infected Case" button adds an infected person into the population.

  • The "Watch 1 Infected Case" button allows you to focus on a single infected person. You may see this person eventually recover or die.

HOW TO USE IT

  1. First choose the starting population size.

  2. Click on "Set up/Reset", then "Run/Pause". Change the number in "Days" if you want to run the model for a longer or shorter time.

  3. Observe the infection changes in the population in the simulation world, plot, and monitors.

  4. Use "Run one day" to run the model in a controlled way and collecting day-by-day data.

RELATED MODELS

Find more epidemic models at 3dsciencemodeling.com/COVID-19

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Dr. Lin Xiang (lin.xiang@uky.edu) created this model at the University of Kentucky in 2020. If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.

Xiang, L. (2020). Infectious Disease Outbreak-Basic Phenomenon. Department of STEM Education, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.

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;;  |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
;;  |Infectious Disease Outbreak-Basic Phenomenon
;;  |Dr. Lin Xiang (lin.xiang@uky.edu) created this module at the University of Kentucky in 2020.
;;  |If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.
;;  |
;;  | Xiang, L. (2020). Infectious Disease Outbreak-Basic Phenomenon. Department of STEM Education, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.
;;  |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
;;  |CREATIVE COMMONS LICENSE
;;  |This code is distributed by Lin Xiang under a Creative Commons License:
;;  |Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0)
;;  |https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
;;  |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

turtles-own [day]
Patches-own [ ]
Globals [LM max-daily-cases]

to setup
  clear-all
  setup-turtles
  setup-patches
  set LM 0
  reset-ticks
end 

to setup-turtles
  create-turtles Population-size
  [set color 68
    set size 1.25
    set shape "person"
    set day 0
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
  ]
end 

to setup-patches
  ask patches [set pcolor 0]
end 

to go

  if ticks >= days [stop]
  move
  transmission
  sickness
  find-max-daily-cases
  tick
end 

to move
  ask turtles
  [right random 360 forward 1]
end 

to add-an-infected-person
  create-turtles 1
  [set color orange
    set size 1.25
    set shape "person"
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
  ]
end 

to transmission
  ask turtles with [color = orange]
  [
    let healthy-person one-of other turtles in-radius 1 with [color = 68]
    if healthy-person != nobody
    [ask healthy-person [
      if random 100 < 90
      [set color orange]]]
  ]
end 

to sickness
  ask turtles with [color = orange]
  [set day day + 1
    if day >= 15
    [ifelse random 100 < 20
      [ set LM LM + 1 die  ]
      [set color blue] ]
  ]
end 

to watch-a-person
  watch one-of turtles with [color = orange]
end 

to find-max-daily-cases
  if count turtles with [color = orange ] > max-daily-cases        ;Count the infectious.If it is greater than the current record of max daily cases
  [set max-daily-cases count turtles with [color = orange ]]       ;update the max daily case
end 

There are 6 versions of this model.

Uploaded by When Description Download
lin xiang over 3 years ago minor updates Download this version
lin xiang over 3 years ago adjust the interface Download this version
lin xiang over 4 years ago Adjust the interface Download this version
lin xiang over 4 years ago add a monitor for max daily cases Download this version
lin xiang over 5 years ago fix formatting Download this version
lin xiang over 5 years ago Initial upload Download this version

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Infectious Disease Outbreak (COVID-19)-Basic Phenomenon.png preview Preview for 'Infectious Disease Outbreak (COVID-19)-Basic Phenomenon' over 5 years ago, by lin xiang Download

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