Child of CoVid19-abm

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WHAT IS IT?

CoVid19-abm is an agent based model for epidemic dynamics of covid19 desease in urban centers or megalopolis it aims to simulate transmission and desease dynamics and also medicare dynamics.

HOW IT WORKS

Agents represents people. There are four zones where these people 'lives' the size of each of 4 populations is N

Individuals are in 1 of four classes:

Healthy-susceptible
Infected-symtomatic
Infected-asymptomatic
Cured

The dynamics of the model are basedon local rules. A 8-neighborhood its used.

A healthy-susceptible person may be infected by an infected (symptomatic or asymptomatic) neighbor with some probability P.

An infected may show symptomatic desease only for a fraction of infected.

There is a switch for studying theoutcome of a quarantine strategy:

Strategy 1 consist on restricting movility only of symptomatic infected
Strategy 2 consist on restricting movility of aproximate 30 % of people
Strategy 3 consist on restricting movility of approximate 80 % of people

HOW TO USE IT

Just choose a population size N, if running quarantine mode, choose an strategy.

THINGS TO NOTICE

When running in qurantine mode there are two things to notice:

Death by desease
duration of outbreak

THINGS TO TRY

It can be modified for include more than 4 patches of population. The rule of infection is local for first neighbors. But it can be changed for spreading the desease on second neighbors, this is not a CoVid19 behaviour but it may be useful for some other desease.

EXTENSIONS

The movility algorithm althoug showing local features it's very limited. It can be a desired extension looking for network-based movility.

RELATED MODELS

ABM_VPH

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Author: Augusto Cabrera-Becerril.

CoVid19_abm is licensed under the GNU General Public License v3.0

Comments and Questions

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Click to Run Model

globals[]
turtles-own[edad is-healthy? is-sick? ti tc is_symptomatic?]
breed[personas persona ]

to setup
  clear-all
  setup-personas
  setup-patches
  reset-ticks
end 

to setup-patches
   ask patches [let k count personas-here set pcolor cyan + 0.1 * k]
end 

to setup-personas
  create-personas N [set xcor random-poisson random 40 set ycor random-poisson random 40  ]
  create-personas N [set xcor -40 - random-poisson random 40 set ycor -40 - random-poisson  random  40 ]
  create-personas N [set xcor -40 - random-poisson random 40 set ycor random-poisson random 40 ]
  create-personas N [set xcor  random-poisson random 40 set ycor -40 - random-poisson  random  40 ]
  ask personas[set shape "person" set color green set edad random-poisson 36 set tc precision (36 + random-float 3) 2 set is-sick? false set is-healthy? true set is_symptomatic? false  set ti 0]
  ask up-to-n-of (0.1 * N) personas [set is-sick? true set is-healthy? false  set ti ti + 1 ifelse random 100 <= 8 [set is_symptomatic? true set color red][set is_symptomatic? false set color pink]]
end 

to go
  ask personas [
    move
    if is-sick?[infect set ti ti + 1  muere clear-out]
    colorear-personas
   ]

  ask patches [colorear-parche]
  tick
end 

to move
  ifelse quarantine [
    ifelse strategy = 1 [ifelse is-sick? and is_symptomatic? [ ][rt random 180 lt random 180 fd random-gamma 80 80]]
    [ifelse strategy = 2 [ask n-of (0.3 * ( count personas )) personas [ fd 0]][if strategy = 3 [ask n-of (0.8 * (count personas)) personas [fd 0] ]]]
  ]
  [rt random 180 lt random 180 fd random-gamma 80 80]
end 

to colorear-personas
  ifelse is-healthy? [set color green][ ifelse is-sick? [ifelse is_symptomatic? [set color red][set color pink]][set color black]]
end 

to colorear-parche
  let k count personas-here set pcolor pcolor + 0.1 * k
end 

to infect
  let s count personas-on neighbors
  ask up-to-n-of 2.5  personas-on neighbors [if random 100 < 25 [set is-sick? true set is-healthy? false set ti ti + 1]]
end 

to show_symptoms
  if ti >= 3 [ifelse random 100 < 20 [set is_symptomatic? true set tc 38 + random-float 1][set is_symptomatic? false] ]
end 

to clear-out
  if ti >= 20 and random 100 <= 80[set is-healthy? false set is-sick? false set ti 0]
end 

to muere
  if ti > 15 and random 100 <= 1 [die]
end

There is only one version of this model, created over 5 years ago by Augusto Cabrera-Becerril.

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Parent: CoVid19-abm

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