Artificial stock market
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This model was created for supporting my thesis during my master in economics between 2009 and 2012. The research, the model and the mayor findings are explained in the Prezi link (spanish only): http://prezi.com/prgfvkzhntj/?utmcampaign=share&utm_medium=copy&rc=ex0share
Other onlie version is ready to use at http://agiltools.com/ASM/index.html
CREDITS AND REFERENCES
If you want to use this model, you have to quote the author: Gil, Alvaro. Artificial Stock Market. Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (Colombia) 2012. alvaro.gil@polymtl.ca
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extensions [matrix] breed [Acciones Accion] breed [Agentes Agente] globals [ choque? t_choque array_ref historic_price historic_rent historic_trans book_buy book_sell daily_book lin_trend_fund actual_price actual_volume ret_price ret_db ret_medio number_agents number_acciones min_agentes global_fund fund? rent_db index_array ] Acciones-own [ precio estado propietario] Agentes-own [ dinero_inic dinero patrimonio mi_rendimiento tipo g1 g2 Li ki rLi ni ei ri pt+1 ai bi portafolio desde senal ] to setup __clear-all-and-reset-ticks file-close-all set historic_price [] set historic_rent [] set ret_db [] set rent_db [] set index_array [] set choque? 0 set array_ref [] ;Fund_perc, Tasa_ref ;if Crecimiento = true [set fund? true] set fund? true set min_agentes int(Agentes_Iniciales / 2) set global_fund Fundamental set historic_trans [] ;Formato por posiciones: ; 0 1 2 3 4 ;Periodo De Para Titulo Valor set book_buy [] ;Formato por posiciones ; 0 1 2 3 ;Valor Agente Cantidad Vigente_Hasta set book_sell [] ;Formato por posiciones ; 0 1 2 ;Valor Agente Titulo ask patches [set pcolor white] setup_plots gen_hist_price setup_indice set-default-shape turtles "Person" create-Agentes Agentes_Iniciales [ setxy random-pxcor random-pycor set portafolio [] update_atributos update_expectations allocate_money set desde ticks] foreach [who] of agentes [ create-Acciones 1 [ set hidden? true set size 0.1 set estado "vendida" let ac who set propietario ? ask agente ? [ set dinero dinero - last(historic_price) let tempar [] set tempar lput(ac) tempar set tempar lput(last(historic_price)) tempar set tempar lput(ticks) tempar set portafolio lput(tempar) portafolio set shape "person student" ] set precio last(historic_price) ] ] update_patrimonio update_plots 2 set actual_price last(historic_price) end to go if ticks = 0 and Modo = "Traza" [ file-close-all if file-exists? "ASM.txt" [file-delete "ASM.txt"] file-open "ASM.txt" file-write "Per" file-write "Tasa" file-write "Tec" file-write "Fund" file-write "Ruido" file-write "Pt" file-write " " file-print "Ret" ] ;if ticks > 1000 [stop] if Disp_val? = True [print (word"Periodo " ticks)] if ticks = 0 and Disp_val? = True [print (word"El precio inicial es de " last(historic_price))] ask agentes [update_expectations] start_bids transar update_price update_patrimonio update_plots 3 collect_statistics clean_db if count(Acciones with [estado = "libre"]) = 0 [crear_titulos] if choque? != 0 [ ifelse t_choque = 0 [ set choque? 0 set global_fund lin_trend_fund set T_Ref_% item 1 array_ref] [ if choque? = 1 [ set global_fund (lin_trend_fund * (1 + Magnitud / 50)) repeat 2 [create_new_agents]] set t_choque t_choque - 1]] tick end ;------------------------------------------------; ;---------------- SETUP SUBRUTINES --------------; ;------------------------------------------------; to create_new_agents create-Agentes 1 [ setxy random-pxcor random-pycor set portafolio [] update_atributos update_expectations allocate_money let tt length(portafolio) * last(historic_price) set patrimonio int(dinero + tt) set desde ticks] end to update_atributos set ni abs(random-normal 0 n0) ;chiarella lo usa solo y LeBaron con ABS set g1 abs(random-normal 0 sigma_1) set g2 random-normal 0 sigma_2 set ki 0.001 + random-float k set ei random-normal 0 1 ;Este valor se re-calcula a cada instante set Li 1 + random L_max ifelse abs(abs(g1) - abs(g2)) <= ruido [set tipo "Noisy"] [ifelse abs(g1) > abs(g2) [set tipo "Fundamentalista"] [ifelse g2 > 0 [set tipo "Trend Chasing"] [set tipo "Chartist"]]] if tipo = "Fundamentalista" [set color Yellow] if tipo = "Noisy" [set color black] if tipo = "Trend Chasing" [set color blue] if tipo = "Chartist" [set color red] end to gen_hist_price let j 0 let p0 Fundamental let p1 p0 while [j < 200] [ let randval random-normal 0.000812358520455973 0.0109806285398027 if length(index_array) > 0 [ set randval random-normal (item 1 index_array) sqrt (item 4 index_array)] ifelse j != 199 [ set historic_rent lput(randval) historic_rent set p1 p0 + p0 * last(historic_rent) set historic_price lput(p1) historic_price] [set p1 aprox (p0 + p0 * randval) tick_size set historic_price lput(p1) historic_price set historic_rent lput(ln(p1 / p0)) historic_rent] set p0 p1 update_plots 1 set j j + 1] end to setup_plots set-current-plot "Precio" set-plot-y-range (Fundamental - 1000) (Fundamental + 1000) set-current-plot "Retornos" set-plot-y-range -.03 .03 set-current-plot "Retorno Promedio" set-plot-y-range 0 .002 set-current-plot "Rentabilidad" set-plot-y-range 0 5 end to allocate_money let m 0 let d 1 ifelse Media_riqueza_inicial > global_fund * 4 [set m Media_riqueza_inicial] [set m global_fund * 4] set d m / 10 if Distribucion_riqueza_inicial = "Constante" [set dinero m] if Distribucion_riqueza_inicial = "Normal" [set dinero round(random-normal m d)] if Distribucion_riqueza_inicial = "Uniforme" [set dinero round( m * 3 / 4 + random-float (1 / 2 * m))] if Distribucion_riqueza_inicial = "Pareto" [set dinero round((m * 0.9) / ((random-float 1) ^ (1 / 5)))] if Distribucion_riqueza_inicial = "Lognormal" [set dinero round(exp(ln(m) - (1 / 2) * ln(1 + (d / m) ^ 2) + (random-normal 0 1) * (ln(1 + (d / m) ^ 2)) ^ (1 / 2)))] set dinero_inic dinero end ;------------------------------------------------; ;----------------- GO SUBRUTINES ----------------; ;------------------------------------------------; to update_expectations let flag 0 let q 0 while [flag = 0] [ set ei random-normal 0 1 ;Actualiza el error a cada instante set rLi update_L Li set ri g1 * ln(global_fund / last(historic_price)) + g2 * rLi + ni * ei set pt+1 last(historic_price) * exp(ri) ;set q q + 1 if (pt+1 >= 0 and pt+1 <= last(historic_price) * 50) [ ; ifelse senal = 0 [ set bi aprox int(pt+1 * (1 - ki)) tick_size set ai aprox int(pt+1 * (1 + ki)) tick_size set flag 1] [ let ktemp random-float ki set bi aprox int(pt+1 * (1 - 1 * ki)) tick_size ;Quien compra quiere comprar solo si es muy barato set ai aprox int(pt+1 * (1 - 0.5 * ki)) tick_size ;Quien vende quiere vender asi sea perdiendo set flag 1]] ] end to start_bids set book_buy [] set book_sell [] ask agentes [ let rr random-float 1 if rr <= lambda [ ;if Actualizar_Atributos = True [fd .1] if length(portafolio) > 0 [let i 0 while [i < length(portafolio)] [let pa item 1 (item i portafolio) if (pa > pt+1 or (senal < 0 and ai < pa));Si el valor de compra de la accion es mayor que el precio futuro => VENDE [let a2 first(item i portafolio) let tempar [] set tempar lput(ai) tempar set tempar lput(who) tempar set tempar lput(a2) tempar set book_sell lput(tempar) book_sell] set i i + 1]] ]] if count(acciones with [estado = "libre"]) > 0 [ let tempar [who] of acciones with [estado = "libre"] let i 0 while [i < length(tempar)] [ let acc item i tempar let my_array [] set my_array lput([precio] of accion acc) my_array set my_array lput("B") my_array set my_array lput(item i tempar) my_array set book_sell lput my_array book_sell set i i + 1]] ;show book_sell ask agentes [ let rr random-float 1 if (rr <= lambda or senal > 0) and length(book_sell) > 0 [ let book_temp map [first ?] book_sell if (pt+1 > min(book_temp) or senal < 0) and (dinero > bi and bi > 0) [ ;Si hay acciones a la venta a menor precio que su expectativa => COMPRA let tempar [] set tempar lput(bi) tempar set tempar lput(who) tempar set tempar lput(int(dinero / bi)) tempar set tempar lput(ticks + 1) tempar set book_buy lput tempar book_buy] ] ] set book_buy sort-by [first ?1 < first ?2] book_buy set book_sell sort-by [first ?1 < first ?2] book_sell set book_buy filter [first ? > 0] book_buy set book_sell filter [first ? > 0] book_sell if Disp_Val? = true [ print (word "El libro de compra es ") print book_buy print (word "El libro de venta es ") print book_sell] end to transar let t ticks set actual_volume 0 if length(book_buy) > 0 [ ;Aqui debemos comenzar con el algoritmo de calce de subastas ;1) Ordenar todas las ofertas de compra y venta de mayor a menor let tempar_prix [] let filter_book_sell (filter [? <= (max(map [first ?] book_buy))] map [first ?] book_sell) set tempar_prix reverse(sort(sentence (map [first ?] book_buy) filter_book_sell)) set tempar_prix remove-duplicates tempar_prix ;2) Por cada precio, crear un arreglo temporal que contenga 5 posiciones: ;2.1 Precio ;2.2 Qc ;2.3 Qv ;2.4 Calce ;2.5 Desbalance let tempar_prix_3 [] let i 0 let meanprix 0 while [i < length(tempar_prix)] [ let tempar_prix_2 [0 0 0 0 0] set tempar_prix_2 replace-item 0 tempar_prix_2 (item i tempar_prix) ;Precio set tempar_prix_2 replace-item 1 tempar_prix_2 sum(map [item 2 ?] (filter [first ? >= (item i tempar_prix)] book_buy)) ;Qc set tempar_prix_2 replace-item 2 tempar_prix_2 length(filter [? <= (item i tempar_prix)] (map [first ?] book_sell)) ;Qv let calce item 1 tempar_prix_2 if item 2 tempar_prix_2 < calce [set calce item 2 tempar_prix_2] set tempar_prix_2 replace-item 3 tempar_prix_2 calce ;Calce let maxq item 1 tempar_prix_2 if item 2 tempar_prix_2 > maxq [set maxq item 2 tempar_prix_2] set tempar_prix_2 replace-item 4 tempar_prix_2 (maxq - calce) ;Desbalance set tempar_prix_3 lput tempar_prix_2 tempar_prix_3 set i i + 1] ;Ahora se elige el mayor calce con el menor desbalance. ifelse length(tempar_prix) > 0 [ set daily_book matrix:from-row-list tempar_prix_3 if Disp_Val? = true [print matrix:pretty-print-text daily_book] let col_max matrix:get-column daily_book 3 ;CRASO ERROR, ANTES ERA LA COLUMNA 2, WRONG! let max_val max(col_max) if Disp_Val? = true [print (word "El calce maximo es " max_val)] let tempar_prix_5 [] set i 0 while [i < length(tempar_prix_3)] [ if item 3 (item i tempar_prix_3) = max_val [set tempar_prix_5 lput(item i tempar_prix_3) tempar_prix_5] set i i + 1] if Disp_Val? = true [print (word "El libro depurado es")] let daily_book2 matrix:from-row-list tempar_prix_5 if Disp_Val? = true [print matrix:pretty-print-text daily_book2] let col_min matrix:get-column daily_book2 4 let min_val min(col_min) if Disp_Val? = true [print (word "El valor minimo es " min_val)] let tempar_prix_6 [] set i 0 while [i < length(tempar_prix_5)][ if item 4 (item i tempar_prix_5) = min_val [set tempar_prix_6 lput(item i tempar_prix_5) tempar_prix_6] set i i + 1] if Disp_Val? = true [print (word "Finalmente")] let daily_book3 matrix:from-row-list tempar_prix_6 if Disp_Val? = true [print matrix:pretty-print-text daily_book3] let tempar_prix_7 [] set i 0 while [i < length(tempar_prix_6)] [ set tempar_prix_7 lput(item 0 (item i tempar_prix_6)) tempar_prix_7 set i i + 1] set meanprix aprox mean(tempar_prix_7) tick_size ] [set meanprix last(historic_price)] if Disp_Val? = true [print (word "El precio final de mercado debe ser " meanprix)] let book_buy2 filter [first ? >= meanprix] book_buy let tempbook [] foreach (filter [first ? > meanprix] book_buy2) [ set i 0 while [i < item 2 ?] [let tempar replace-item 2 ? 1 set tempbook lput(tempar) tempbook set i i + 1]] set book_buy2 sort-by [first ?1 > first ?2] tempbook ;show book_buy2 let book_sell2 sort-by [first ?1 < first ?2] (filter [first ? <= meanprix] book_sell) ;show book_sell2 if length(book_buy2) > 0 and length(book_sell2) > 0 [ set i 0 let ll length(book_buy2) if length(book_sell2) < ll [set ll length(book_sell2)] while [i < ll] [ let ac (item 2 (item i book_sell2)) let vendedor (item 1 (item i book_sell2)) let comprador (item 1 (item i book_buy2)) ;La Accion ask accion (item 2 (item i book_sell2)) [ set estado "vendida" set precio meanprix set propietario comprador] ;El que vende if vendedor != "B" [ ask agente vendedor [ set dinero dinero + meanprix let p position ac (map [first ?] portafolio) set portafolio remove-item p portafolio if length(portafolio) = 0 [set shape "person"]]] ;El que compra ask agente comprador [ set dinero dinero - meanprix let tempar [] set tempar lput(ac) tempar set tempar lput(meanprix) tempar set tempar lput(ticks) tempar set portafolio lput(tempar) portafolio set shape "person student"] let tempar [] set tempar lput(ticks) tempar set tempar lput(vendedor) tempar set tempar lput(comprador) tempar set tempar lput(ac) tempar set tempar lput(meanprix) tempar set historic_trans lput tempar historic_trans set i i + 1] ] set actual_volume length(map [last ?] (filter [first ? = ticks] historic_trans)) if Disp_Val? = true [print (word "El total de transacciones es de " actual_volume)] ] end to update_price let pm 0 let lp last(historic_price) ifelse actual_volume > 0 [set pm last(last(historic_trans))] ;mean(book_transactions) [ ifelse length(book_sell) > 0 and length(book_buy) > 0 [ let am max(map [first ?] book_buy) let bm min(map [first ?] book_sell) set pm aprox ((am + bm) / 2) tick_size] [set pm last(historic_price)] ] let ren ln(pm / lp) set historic_price lput pm historic_price set historic_rent lput ren historic_rent if length historic_rent >= 300 ;200 iniciales + 100 de ajuste [set ret_db lput ren ret_db] if Disp_val? = true [print (word"Y el nuevo precio al terminar transacciones es de " last(historic_price))] let forecast matrix:forecast-linear-growth historic_price ifelse fund? = true [ set lin_trend_fund aprox first(forecast) tick_size if choque? = 0 [ set global_fund lin_trend_fund set array_ref [] set array_ref lput global_fund array_ref set array_ref lput T_Ref_% array_ref] ] [set lin_trend_fund global_fund] end to clean_db if length(historic_price) > 300 [ set historic_price sublist historic_price (length(historic_price) - 300) (length(historic_price)) set historic_rent sublist historic_rent (length(historic_rent) - 300) (length(historic_rent))] set historic_trans [] set daily_book [] set book_buy [] set book_sell [] end to update_plots [a] if a = 1 [ set-current-plot "Retornos" set-current-plot-pen "default" if length(historic_price) > 200 [set-plot-pen-color 105] plot last(historic_rent)] set-current-plot "Precio" if length(historic_price) > 200 [set-plot-pen-color 105] plot last(historic_price) if a = 2 or a = 3 [ set-current-plot "Retornos" set-current-plot-pen "default" if length(historic_price) > 200 [set-plot-pen-color 105] plot last(historic_rent) if Modo = "Traza" and ticks > 100 [ file-write ticks file-write T_Ref_% file-write (count agentes with [tipo = "Trend Chasing"] + count agentes with [tipo = "Chartist"]) file-write count agentes with [tipo = "Fundamentalista"] file-write count agentes with [tipo = "Noisy"] file-write last(historic_price) file-write " " file-print last(historic_rent)] set-current-plot "Agentes por tipologia" set-current-plot-pen "Tec" plot (count agentes with [tipo = "Trend Chasing"] + count agentes with [tipo = "Chartist"]) set-current-plot-pen "Fund" plot count agentes with [tipo = "Fundamentalista"] set-current-plot-pen "Noisy" plot count agentes with [tipo = "Noisy"] set-current-plot "Retorno Promedio" if ticks >= 150 [ if length(index_array) > 0 [ set-current-plot-pen "A. Crec." plot item 0 index_array set-current-plot-pen "B. Calma" plot item 1 index_array set-current-plot-pen "C. Nerv." plot item 2 index_array set-current-plot-pen "D. Crisis" plot item 3 index_array] set-current-plot-pen "Simulado" plot ret_medio] set-current-plot "Rentabilidad" set-current-plot-pen "Rentabilidad" plot mean([mi_rendimiento] of agentes) * 100 set-current-plot-pen "Rent media" ifelse length(rent_db) > 0 and ticks > 0 [plot mean rent_db] [plot 0] ] end to update_patrimonio ask agentes [ let tt length(portafolio) * last(historic_price) set patrimonio int(dinero + tt) set mi_rendimiento ((patrimonio / dinero_inic)) - 1;* (ticks - desde) / 244) - 1 ] ;Ahora evaluamos la expansion y contraccion del mercado; set rent_db lput (mean([mi_rendimiento] of agentes) * 100) rent_db if Crecimiento = True and ticks > 100 [ let ren mean([mi_rendimiento] of agentes) * 100 if mean(rent_db) > ren [set ren mean rent_db] if count(agentes with [length(portafolio) = 0 and pt+1 < actual_price]) > 0 and count(agentes) > min_agentes [ if (ren < T_Ref_% ) [ let n int((T_Ref_% - ren) / 100 * count(agentes)) + 1 if n > count(agentes with [length(portafolio) = 0]) [set n count(agentes with [length(portafolio) = 0])] if count(agentes) - n < min_agentes [set n count(agentes) - min_agentes] ;ask n-of n agentes with [length(portafolio) > 0] [set senal -1] ; Si el panorama afuera es mas favorable, un agente con acciones VENDE ask n-of n agentes with [length(portafolio) = 0] [die] ] ] if (update_rent >= (T_Ref_% / 100)) [ create_new_agents ask agentes [set senal 0]] ] end to collect_statistics set actual_price last(historic_price) set ret_price last(historic_rent) ifelse length ret_db > 0 [set ret_medio mean(ret_db)] [set ret_medio 0] set number_agents count(agentes) set number_acciones count(acciones) end to crear_titulos create-Acciones 10 [ set size 0.1 set hidden? true set estado "libre" set propietario "B" set precio last(historic_price)] end to generar_pos ifelse choque? = 0 [ set choque? 1 set T_Ref_% T_Ref_% / 2 set t_choque 50] [set choque? 0 set T_Ref_% item 1 array_ref] end to generar_neg ifelse choque? = 0 [ set choque? -1 set global_fund (global_fund * (100 - Magnitud) / 100) set T_Ref_% int(mean([mi_rendimiento] of agentes) * 100) * (1 + Magnitud / 25) set t_choque 5] [set choque? 0 set global_fund lin_trend_fund set T_Ref_% item 1 array_ref] end to setup_indice if Indice = "IGBC" [ set index_array lput 0.00229 index_array set index_array lput 0.0008123 index_array set index_array lput -0.0027 index_array set index_array lput -0.0066 index_array set index_array lput 0.0001205 index_array if modo = "Indice" [ set Distribucion_riqueza_inicial "Normal" set Agentes_Iniciales 500 set Lambda 0.75 set Tick_size 1 set Sigma_1 0.6 set Sigma_2 2.6 set n0 0.25 set k 0.15 set L_max 50 set Ruido 0.2 set Crecimiento true set T_Ref_% 0.75]] if Indice = "S&P500" [ set index_array lput 0.00062 index_array set index_array lput 0.0003008 index_array set index_array lput -0.00073 index_array set index_array lput -0.00177 index_array set index_array lput 0.0001091 index_array if modo = "Indice" [ set Distribucion_riqueza_inicial "Normal" set Agentes_Iniciales 700 set Lambda 0.75 set Tick_size 1 set Sigma_1 0.5 set Sigma_2 1.5 set n0 0.15 set k 0.45 set L_max 50 set Ruido 0.2 set Crecimiento true set T_Ref_% 1.0]] if Indice = "BVSP" [ set index_array lput 0.00153 index_array set index_array lput 0.0004266 index_array set index_array lput -0.00063 index_array set index_array lput -0.00040 index_array set index_array lput 0.0002106 index_array if modo = "Indice" [ set Distribucion_riqueza_inicial "Uniforme" set Agentes_Iniciales 600 set Lambda 0.90 set Tick_size 1 set Sigma_1 0.5 set Sigma_2 2.0 set n0 0.15 set k 0.42 set L_max 50 set Ruido 0.2 set Crecimiento true set T_Ref_% 1.0]] if Indice = "IPSA" [ set index_array lput 0.00180793 index_array set index_array lput 0.00091044 index_array set index_array lput -0.00025778 index_array set index_array lput -0.00227601 index_array set index_array lput 0.00006301 index_array if modo = "Indice" [ set Distribucion_riqueza_inicial "Uniforme" set Agentes_Iniciales 600 set Lambda 0.75 set Tick_size 1 set Sigma_1 0.5 set Sigma_2 2.0 set n0 0.15 set k 0.2 set L_max 50 set Ruido 0.2 set Crecimiento true set T_Ref_% 1.0]] end to-report aprox [a b] let temp a if (a / b) != int(a / b) [ ifelse (a / b) - int(a / b) < 0.5 [set temp int(a / b) * b] [set temp int(a / b) * b + b]] report temp end to-report update_L [L] let j 0 let subli_ret [] set subli_ret sublist historic_rent (length(historic_rent) - L) length(historic_rent) report mean(subli_ret) end to-report update_rent let dininic [] let dinactual [] ask agentes [ set dininic lput(dinero_inic) dininic set dinactual lput(patrimonio) dinactual] let rentact [] let i 0 while [i < length(dininic)][ ifelse item i dininic != 0 [set rentact lput((item i dinactual) / (item i dininic)) rentact] [set rentact lput(0) rentact] set i i + 1] let rent mean(rentact) - 1 set rent rent * 244 / (ticks + 1) report rent end
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Attached files
File | Type | Description | Last updated | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Artificial stock market.png | preview | Preview for 'Artificial stock market' | about 11 years ago, by Alvaro Gil | Download |
matrix.jar | extension | Matrix extension | about 11 years ago, by Alvaro Gil | Download |
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