Artificial Anasazi revisited
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extensions [ gis table ] breed [ households household ] globals [ start-year fertility-age fertility-end-age death-age food-requirement food-estimate-margin corn-gift-ratio corn-stock-years good-farm-bias year pdsi-table population-sequence historical-sequence harvest-list fit-badness desired-fit-length ] patches-own [ value zone patch-quality base-yield historical-base-yield being-farmed? ] households-own [ harvest age corn-storage unsatisfied-hunger ] ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; main setup code ;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to setup clear-all set-default-shape households "person" gis-map-load "adata/Map.asc" set pdsi-table load-zone-file "adata/ZoneAdjPDSI.txt" ask patches [ initialise-patch ] set start-year 800 ;; initial year set food-requirement (5 * 160) ;; a person needs 160 kg of corn each year, while a typical household consist of 5 persons set fertility-age 17 ;; the minimum age of agents (households) that can reproduce (spin off daughter households) set fertility-end-age 36 ;; the maximum age of agents (households) that can reproduce set death-age 38 ;; the age after which agents (households) die (dissolve when the matriarch dies) set corn-gift-ratio 0.33 ;; each new household gets this fraction of the corn storage of the parent household set corn-stock-years 2 ;; corn can be stored for this many years set good-farm-bias 1000 ;; larger numbers mean food yield is taken more strongly into account when choosing a farm set food-estimate-margin 1.1 ;; agents want this multiple of food requirements, or they will move to another farm set year start-year set population-sequence [ ] set harvest-list [ ] set historical-sequence [ 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 31 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 33 33 33 33 33 37 37 37 37 37 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 56 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 60 60 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 59 61 61 61 61 61 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 61 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 66 69 69 69 69 65 68 68 68 68 66 67 67 67 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 86 86 87 85 86 86 87 87 87 87 88 88 88 87 87 87 87 87 88 90 90 90 90 89 91 92 92 95 95 95 95 97 97 94 94 94 94 95 95 95 95 95 95 134 139 139 139 139 139 139 142 142 142 142 143 143 146 146 146 146 151 151 153 151 151 151 151 151 156 164 164 164 164 163 163 163 163 165 165 165 165 164 164 163 164 164 164 161 162 162 162 162 162 161 164 164 165 165 166 166 166 167 166 166 166 166 159 159 160 160 158 159 160 160 161 162 162 162 148 150 151 151 151 151 151 149 149 147 148 148 148 148 150 150 150 151 151 152 152 152 153 153 153 116 117 118 118 119 119 120 121 122 126 124 124 124 126 127 127 129 131 131 133 132 134 134 136 137 133 138 138 139 139 138 140 140 142 142 142 143 143 144 145 145 147 146 147 147 149 149 150 151 151 145 146 146 147 148 149 149 151 153 154 155 157 159 160 161 163 164 166 167 167 169 169 171 171 173 170 173 176 176 178 178 180 182 184 184 185 188 189 190 192 191 193 192 194 194 194 195 196 199 200 192 193 194 196 196 197 200 202 202 204 201 209 208 211 212 212 213 214 215 216 210 208 206 201 196 188 181 176 172 167 159 156 148 146 141 120 118 114 106 103 95 90 88 83 74 70 68 60 58 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ] make-region-label 45 98 "Non-arable uplands" black ;; region is yellow make-region-label 28 47 "General valley" brown make-region-label 23 73 "North valley" red make-region-label 50 68 "Mid valley" gray make-region-label 25 84 "Dunes" green ;; North and Mid valley dunes make-region-label 20 102 "Kinbiko Canyon" pink make-region-label 39 11 "Arable uplands" orange set desired-fit-length (length filter [ ? > 0 ] historical-sequence) let hist-init-households 14 ;; starting number of households (based on historical data) calculate-patch-yields ;; used to find initial farms create-households hist-init-households [ initialise-household (random 29) ;; initial ages up to 28 set corn-storage (n-values (corn-stock-years + 1) [ 600 + random-float 400 ]) ;; corn-storage divided into age categories (0, 1, 2) find-best-farm potential-farms ] reset-ticks tick-advance start-year ;; start counting from the year 800 end to initialise-household [ start-age ] set age start-age set harvest 0 set size 4 set color black end to find-best-farm [ farms ] ;; find the best farm from the set, and leave the valley (i.e. die) if there is none ifelse (count farms = 0) [ die ] [ let existing-farm patch-here ; these distance calculations assume that the edges of the world do not wrap around let best-farm (min-one-of farms [ distance existing-farm + good-farm-bias / estimated-farm-yield ]) ask best-farm [ set being-farmed? true ] move-to best-farm ] end to-report potential-farms ;; calculate a set of available farm locations report (patches with [ estimated-farm-yield >= food-requirement and not being-farmed? ]) end to-report estimated-farm-yield ;; just go for something simple: this year's base yield (but we might substitute a better definition later) report base-yield end ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; main step loop ;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to go calculate-patch-yields annual-household-activities ask households [ ;; agents with insufficient food for next year try to find a new farm if (food-estimate < food-estimate-margin * food-requirement) [ ask patch-here [ set being-farmed? false ] find-best-farm potential-farms ] ] let farms potential-farms ;; avoid recomputing this unnecessarily ask households [ if (age >= fertility-age and age <= fertility-end-age and random-float 1 < fertility and count farms > 0) [ do-reproduce farms set farms potential-farms ] ] plot-interesting-data if (year = 1350 or count households = 0) [ stop ] set year year + 1 tick end to plot-interesting-data set-current-plot "Population (households)" set-current-plot-pen "Potential" plotxy year (count patches with [ mean historical-base-yield >= food-requirement ]) set-current-plot-pen "Historical" plotxy year (item (year - 800) historical-sequence) ;; index list starting at 0 set-current-plot-pen "Model" plotxy year (count households) let age-list ([ age ] of households) set-current-plot "Household ages" let xmax (1 + max (fput 0 age-list)) set-histogram-num-bars xmax if (plot-x-max < xmax) [ set-plot-x-range 0 xmax ] ;; histograms require explicit x-max control histogram age-list set-current-plot "Household harvests" let block-size 100 set xmax (1 + ceiling (max (fput 0 harvest-list) / block-size)) if (plot-x-max < xmax * block-size) [ set-plot-x-range 0 (xmax * block-size) ] set-histogram-num-bars (plot-x-max / block-size) histogram harvest-list if (length population-sequence < desired-fit-length) [ set population-sequence (lput (count households) population-sequence) ] let cut-historical-sequence (n-values (length population-sequence) [ item ? historical-sequence ]) set fit-badness (sqrt (mean (map [ (?1 - ?2) * (?1 - ?2) ] population-sequence cut-historical-sequence))) end ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; code for household actions at each step ;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to annual-household-activities ;; calculate the actual harvest of households, update the corn-storage list, and increment age set harvest-list [ ] ask households [ set age age + 1 if (age > death-age) [ ask patch-here [ set being-farmed? false ] die ] set harvest (apply-variability harvest-variability) * ([ base-yield ] of patch-here) set harvest-list (fput harvest harvest-list) set corn-storage (lput harvest (but-first corn-storage)) ;; oldest corn is at the front of the list set unsatisfied-hunger food-requirement set corn-storage (map [ eat-corn ? ] corn-storage) ;; eat the corn starting from the front of the list (the eat-corn reporter transforms old values to new values) if (unsatisfied-hunger > 0) [ ask patch-here [ set being-farmed? false ] die ] ] end to-report eat-corn [ existing-amount ] ;; this reporter attempts to subtract unsatisfied-hunger from the input (and as a side-effect also updates unsatisfied-hunger) ifelse (existing-amount >= unsatisfied-hunger) [ let remaining-amount (existing-amount - unsatisfied-hunger) set unsatisfied-hunger 0 report remaining-amount ] [ set unsatisfied-hunger (unsatisfied-hunger - existing-amount) report 0 ] end to-report food-estimate ;; estimate the amount of food available for next year, based on current stocks of corn, and an estimate of the future harvest let future-estimate harvest ;; predict next year's harvest to be the same as this year's harvest report (future-estimate + sum (but-first corn-storage)) ;; ignore the corn on the front of the list, which is now too old to eat end to do-reproduce [ farms ] let gift-corn (map [ ? * corn-gift-ratio ] corn-storage) set corn-storage (map [ ?1 - ?2 ] corn-storage gift-corn) hatch 1 [ initialise-household 0 ;; initial age of zero set corn-storage gift-corn find-best-farm farms ] end ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; code for calculating PDSI etc. ;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to-report get-pdsi [ z y ] ifelse (table:has-key? pdsi-table z) [ report item (y - start-year) (table:get pdsi-table z) ] [ report 0 ] end to-report thresholded-cubic [ x a b c d lo hi ] let res (x * x * x * a + x * x * b + x * c + d) if (res < lo) [ set res lo ] if (res > hi) [ set res hi] report res end to calculate-patch-yields ;; calculate the crop yield for each patch based on the PDSI data, using a cubic interpolation of published numbers ask patches [ let pdsi get-pdsi zone year let theoretical-yield 0 if (zone = "North" or zone = "Kinbiko" or (zone = "Mid" and pxcor <= 34)) [ set theoretical-yield (thresholded-cubic pdsi 4.4167 6.9456 49.583 823.48 617 1153) ] if (zone = "General" or (zone = "Mid" and pxcor > 34)) [ set theoretical-yield (thresholded-cubic pdsi 3.65 5.7925 41.65 686.28 514 961) ] if (zone = "Uplands") [ set theoretical-yield (thresholded-cubic pdsi 2.9333 4.6599 33.267 548.77 411 769) ] if (zone = "North Dunes" or zone = "Mid Dunes") [ set theoretical-yield (thresholded-cubic pdsi 4.5833 7.1871 51.917 858.03 642 1201) ] set base-yield (theoretical-yield * patch-quality * harvest-adjustment) set historical-base-yield (fput base-yield historical-base-yield) ;; put new base-yield on the front of the list if (length historical-base-yield > 1 + corn-stock-years) [ set historical-base-yield (but-last historical-base-yield) ] ;; truncate to 3 entries, if necessary ] end ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; code for setting up initial patch data ;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to initialise-patch set zone (patch-zone-name value) if (zone = "?") [ user-message (word "Error in patch data load for " self) ] set pcolor (patch-zone-color zone) set being-farmed? false set historical-base-yield [ ] ;; this will be expanded to a list of the last 3 yields ifelse (random-float 1 < usable-farm-fraction) [ set patch-quality (apply-variability crop-yield-variability) ] [ set patch-quality 0 ] end to-report apply-variability [ var ] let res random-normal 1 var ;; random variation around a mean of 1 if (res < 0) [ set res 0 ] ;; because random-normal can return negative values report res end to-report load-zone-file [ fname ] ;; load a file with a list of items for each zone (the zone will be the first element of each list) let tbl table:make ifelse (file-exists? fname) [ file-open fname while [ not file-at-end? ] [ let lst file-read table:put tbl (item 0 lst) (but-first lst) ;; split first item (zone name) from rest of list ] file-close ] [ file-error fname ] report tbl end to file-error [ fname ] user-message (word "Cannot find the file \"" fname "\"") end to gis-map-load [ fname ] ifelse (file-exists? fname) [ let dataset gis:load-dataset fname gis:set-world-envelope (gis:envelope-of dataset) gis:apply-raster dataset value ] [ file-error fname ] end to-report patch-zone-color [ z ] ifelse (z = "General") [ report brown ] [ ifelse (z = "North") [ report red ] [ ifelse (z = "Mid") [ report gray ] [ ifelse (z = "Natural") [ report yellow ] [ ifelse (z = "Uplands") [ report orange ] [ ifelse (z = "Kinbiko") [ report pink ] [ ifelse (z = "North Dunes") [ report green ] [ ifelse (z = "Mid Dunes") [ report green ] [ ifelse (z = "Empty") [ report white ] [ report magenta ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ;; there should be no magenta patches end to-report patch-zone-name [ i ] ifelse (i = 0) [ report "General" ] [ ;; General valley floor ifelse (i = 10) [ report "North" ] [ ;; North valley floor ifelse (i = 15) [ report "North Dunes" ] [ ;; North valley dunes ifelse (i = 20) [ report "Mid" ] [ ;; Mid valley floor ifelse (i = 25) [ report "Mid Dunes" ] [ ;; Mid valley dunes ifelse (i = 30) [ report "Natural" ] [ ;; Natural (non-arable) ifelse (i = 40) [ report "Uplands" ] [ ;; Uplands (arable) ifelse (i = 50) [ report "Kinbiko" ] [ ;; Kinbiko Canyon ifelse (i = 60) [ report "Empty" ] [ report "?" ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ;; there should be no "?" patches end to make-region-label [ x y txt clr ] ask patch x y [ set plabel-color clr set plabel txt ] end
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Attached files
File | Type | Description | Last updated | |
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adata.zip | data | Folder of data files | over 10 years ago, by Anthony Dekker | Download |
Artificial Anasazi revisited.png | preview | Preview for 'Artificial Anasazi revisited' | over 10 years ago, by Anthony Dekker | Download |
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Anthony Dekker
Explanation
This model is associated with a tutorial at http://scientificgems.wordpress.com/2014/06/07/revisiting-artificial-anasazi-a-tutorial-part-1/
Posted over 10 years ago