Modeling and optimization of timber auctions

Modeling and optimization of timber auctions preview image

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Gil Alvaro Gil (Author)

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Click to Run Model

globals [
book_bid
book_ask
temp_book
revenue
counting
Sum_auction
k
Trasportion-cost
harvest-cost
B1
B2
hearing-n
life-cycle
db_transactions
aver_plot11
aver_plot12 
aver_plot13 
aver_plot21 
aver_plot22
aver_plot23
aver_react
mean_prof_t1
mean_prof_t2
mean_prof_t3
sales_info_h
sales_info_s
ag_h
bg_h
ag_s
bg_s
pos1
pos2
pos3
pm
]

breed [bidders bidder]
breed [actions action]

actions-own [
  Creation_day
  Hearing_Date
  Reserve_Price
  State
  Volume
  Species
  Location
  re-auctions
  harvesting-date
]

bidders-own [
  type_bidder
  type_risk_value
  type_risk_need
  point_value
  point_need
  score_risk
  profit_in
  actions_in
  vol_in
  day_in
  capacity
  need
  need_actual
  market_price
  process-cost
  Max_price
  Min_price
  Expected-sale
  asking_since
  Profit_rent
  slope
  Bidding
  best-bidding
  score
  score_bin
  interest_in
  harv_dates
  temp_vol
]

to setup

  ca
  import-drawing "map1.jpg"
  file-close-all
  file-open "test.txt"
  file-print "new model"
  file-write "Operation"
  file-write "Agent"
  file-write "Period"
  file-write "Vol"
  file-write "Type"
  file-write "Location"
  file-write "HD"
  file-write "RP"
  file-write "MP"
  file-write "mean"
  file-write "Wins"
  file-write "Rem_cap"
  file-write "Action"
  file-write "Type_action"
  file-print ""
  set db_transactions [] ; pos 0 = Species, 1 = location, 2 = unit. reserve price, 3 = unit. winning price, 4 = Number of re-auctions 
  set temp_book []
  set book_bid []
  set aver_react []
  set book_ask []
  set sales_info_h []
  set sales_info_s []
  set mean_prof_t1 []
  set mean_prof_t2 []
  set mean_prof_t3 []
  set Trasportion-cost 1
  set revenue []
  set harvest-cost [4 5 6]       ;1= flat 2= swamp 3= mountain
  Set B1 [2 4] ; species
  Set B2 [5 4 3]                 ;5= flat 4= swamp 3= mountain
  set hearing-n 0
  set life-cycle []
  set pm[]
  
  repeat number_of_bidders [set book_ask lput 0 book_ask]
  
  ask patches [set pcolor green + 3]
  
  create-bidders number_of_bidders 
  ask bidders [create_parametres
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor]
  
  set-default-shape bidders "house" 
  set counting 0
  set Sum_auction 0
  set k 0
end 

to go
  
  let mean_n_auction (Mean_Auction_per_year * Periodicity / 365) ; 
  let n_auction floor mean_n_auction + random 2
  if k / periodicity = int(k / periodicity)
   [
     create-actions n_auction 
     [ 
       setxy random-xcor random-ycor
       set size 2
       set color green
       set Creation_day ticks
       set Hearing_Date ticks + periodicity
       set State 1;available
       Set Volume 10 + random 20
       let kkk random 100
       ifelse kkk > %_Softwood 
       [Set Species "Hardwood"]
       [Set Species "Softwood"]
       Set Location random 3 
       let bb1 0
       let bb2 0
       ifelse species = "Hardwood"
       [set bb1 item 1 B1]
       [set bb1 item 0 B1]
       set bb2 item location B2
       set Reserve_Price (volume * (bb1 + bb2)) * 0.7
       ;set market_price int(Reserve_Price * (5 + random-normal 0 1))
       set harvesting-date ((random 3) + 1) * 180
       file-write "CR"
       file-write [who] of self 
       file-write ticks
       file-write volume
       file-write Species
       file-write location
       file-write Hearing_date
       file-write Reserve_Price
       file-print ""
      ]
     set Sum_auction Sum_auction + n_auction
   ]
   set k k + 1
   if k / 365 = int(k / 365)     
   [user-message (word " Year " (k / 365) " is finished ")]
   
   set-default-shape actions "tree"
hearing-date 
update_capacity
harvesting
transform
update_trend
plotting
    tick
    if hearing-n != 0 
    [ask bidders 
      [set asking_since asking_since + 1]
    ]
end 

 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; hearing-date ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; hearing-date ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

to hearing-date 
 
let temp1 [hearing_date] of actions          ;here we define the set of hearings dates 
let q_h length(filter [? = ticks] temp1)     ;how many actions do we have for auctioning today?
set book_bid []
  if q_h > 0
  [ 
   set book_bid [who] of actions with [hearing_date = ticks]   ;all the actions with hearing today, will be audicted at the same time
   let i 0
   ask bidders [
     set Max_price []
     set Min_price []
     set score []
     set score_bin []
     set Bidding []
     set temp_vol 0
  
     ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
     ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; SCORING ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
     ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; 
     
     set i 0
     while [i < length(book_bid)]
     [
       let posi length(Max_price)
       let act item i book_bid
       let vvol [volume] of action act
       let distt distancexy [xcor] of action act [ycor] of action act
       let hharv item ([location] of action act) harvest-cost
       let mk_p 0
       set Max_price lput (vvol * (market_price -(process-cost + hharv + distt * Trasportion-cost))) Max_price
       set Min_price lput (1.05 * ([Reserve_price] of action act)) Min_price
       ;if item posi Min_price > [Reserve_price] of action act
       ;  [set Min_price replace-item posi Min_price ((1 - need / capacity) * (last(Min_price) - [Reserve_price] of action act) + [Reserve_price] of action act)]
       if last(Max_price) < 0 [
         set Max_price replace-item posi Max_price 0 
         set Min_price replace-item posi Min_price 0
       ]
       ;if last(Min_price) < 0 [
       ;  set Min_price replace-item posi Min_price 0 
       ;]
       
       ifelse distt < Radius                                           ;Maximum Radius that bidders are interested to participate
       [
         let v0 last(min_price)
         let v4 last(max_price)
         let diff v4 - v0
         let v2 (v0 + diff / 2)
         let v1 (v0 + diff / 4)
         let v3 (v0 + 3 * diff / 4)
         let desvi diff / 12
         
         if type_risk_need = 1
           [set bidding lput(random-normal v1 desvi) bidding
             set need_actual need
             set need 2 * need + need * (point_need * change_rate_need)]
         if type_risk_need = 2
           [set bidding lput(random-normal v3 desvi) bidding
             set need_actual need
             set need 1.2 * need + need * (point_need * change_rate_need)]
         if type_risk_need = 3
           [let v ([volume] of action act) 
             let d distancexy [xcor] of action act [ycor] of action act
             set need_actual need
             set need 1.2 * need + need * (point_need * change_rate_need)
             let bid3 0
             ifelse [Species] of action act = "Hardwood"
             [set bid3 (ag_h * d + bg_h) * v]
             [set bid3 (ag_s * d + bg_s) * v]
             set bidding lput(bid3) bidding
             ;set bidding lput(random-normal v2 desvi) bidding
           ]   
         
         if type_risk_value = 1
         [set bidding lput(point_value * (diff / 1) + v0) bidding]
         if type_risk_value = 2
         [set bidding lput(point_value * (diff / 1) + v0) bidding]
         if type_risk_value = 3
         [set bidding lput(point_value * (diff / 1) + v0) bidding]
         
         
         if last(Bidding) >= last(max_price)
         [set bidding replace-item posi bidding last(max_price)]
         
         ifelse last(Bidding) >= [Reserve_Price] of action act and need >= [volume] of action act
         [if Type_bidder = "lumber"
           [ifelse [Species] of action act = "Softwood"
             [set score lput 0 score]
             [set score lput [volume] of action act score]]
         if Type_bidder = "paper"
           [ifelse [Species] of action act = "Hardwood"
             [set score lput 0 score]
             [set score lput [volume] of action act score]]
         if Type_bidder = "logger"
           [set score lput [volume] of action act score]
         ]
         [set score lput 0 score
         ]  
         
       ]
       [set bidding lput 0 bidding
         set score lput 0 score
       ]
       
       set i i + 1   
     ]
     
     ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
     ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; COMBINATORIAL BIDDING in each Item Individually;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
     ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
     
     let act_inter_in []               ;Here we exclude the interest auctions (non zero items in Score)
     
     set i 0
     while [i < length(score)]
     [if item i score != 0
       [set act_inter_in lput (item i book_bid) act_inter_in
       ]
     set i i + 1]
     
     let score_bin_temp []             ; Defining Binary
     let score_of_comb []              ; Defining Possible solution using Binary
     
     if length(act_inter_in) > 0
     [
       ifelse length(act_inter_in) = 1
       [set score_bin_temp lput [] score_bin_temp
         let sccc [volume] of action (item 0 act_inter_in) / (distancexy [xcor] of action (item 0 act_inter_in) [ycor] of action (item 0 act_inter_in))
         set score_of_comb lput sccc score_of_comb
       ]
       [set i 0
         while [i < 2 ^ length(act_inter_in)]
         [set score_bin_temp lput [] score_bin_temp
           set score_of_comb lput 0 score_of_comb
           set i i + 1]
         set score_of_comb remove-item last(score_of_comb) score_of_comb   ;????????
       ]
       
       ifelse length(act_inter_in) = 1    
       [ set score_bin_temp [[1]]
         set score_bin act_inter_in
         create-link-to action (item 0 act_inter_in)]
       
       [let j 0
         let change 1
         while [j < length(act_inter_in)]
         [set i 0
           let val 0
           while [i < 2 ^ length(act_inter_in)]
           [if i / change = int(i / change)
             [ifelse val = 0
               [set val 1]
               [set val 0]]
           set score_bin_temp replace-item i score_bin_temp fput val item i score_bin_temp
           set i i + 1
           ] 
           set change change * 2
           set j j + 1
         ]
         
         set i 0
         while [i < 2 ^ length(act_inter_in)]
         [
           let temp_array []
           set j 0
           while [j < length(item i score_bin_temp)]
           [if item j (item i score_bin_temp) != 0
             [set temp_array lput (item j act_inter_in) temp_array]
           set j j + 1]
           if length(temp_array) > 0
           [set score_bin lput temp_array score_bin]
           set i i + 1  
         ]
         
         ;here we use an index to score the possible solutions
         set i 0
         while [i < length(score_bin)]
         [
           let vol_temp 0
           let dist_temp 0
           let index 0
           let pr [who] of self
           set j 0
           while [j < length(item i score_bin)]
           [let act item j (item i score_bin)
             set vol_temp vol_temp + [volume] of action act
             ifelse pr = [who] of self
             [set dist_temp (distancexy [xcor] of action act [ycor] of action act)
               create-link-to action act
             ]
             [ifelse pr = last(item i score_bin)
               [set dist_temp (distancexy [xcor] of action act [ycor] of action act) + dist_temp
                 create-link-to action pr]
               [ask action pr 
                 [set dist_temp (distancexy [xcor] of action act [ycor] of action act) + dist_temp
                   create-link-to action act]
               ]
             ]
             ;user-message(word "we've analysed the distance between " pr " to action " act)
             set pr act
             set j j + 1]
           
           ifelse vol_temp > need
           [set index 999999]
           [set index (dist_temp / vol_temp)]
           set score_of_comb replace-item i score_of_comb index
           set i i + 1  
         ]
         
       ]
       
     ]
     
     if length(score_of_comb) != 0
     [let win_sco min(score_of_comb)
       let win_pos position min(score_of_comb) score_of_comb
       let win_sol item win_pos score_bin
       if is-list? win_sol
       [set i 0
         while [i < length(book_bid)]
         [let j 0
           let act item i book_bid
           let flag 0
           while [j < length(win_sol)]
           [
             if act = item j win_sol
             [set flag 1]
             set j j + 1]
           if flag = 0
           [set score replace-item i score 0]
           set i i + 1
         ]]
       if type_risk_need = 3
       [
         ;user-message( word "the book_bid is " book_bid "the agent " [who] of self " is considering the actions " act_inter_in ", so the universe of possible combinations have " length(score_bin) " options and the book is " score_bin " and the score of these options are " score_of_comb ", so the winner is the lower score " win_sco " which belonges to the solution " win_sol ", and the new score is " score)
       ]
     ]
     
   ]
   
   set i 0
   let rev_temp 0
   
   ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
   ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; WINING PROCESS ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
   ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
   
   set hearing-n hearing-n + 1
   while [i < length(book_bid)]
     [set book_ask []
       let act item i book_bid
       set book_ask filter[? > 0] [item i Bidding] of bidders with [item i score > 0]
       ;user-message(word "the book_bid is " book_bid ", and the book_ask is " book_ask)
       ifelse length(book_ask) > 0
       [let max_mon max(book_ask)
         let mean_mon mean(book_ask)
         let max_bidder one-of([who] of bidders with [length(filter[? = max_mon] bidding) > 0])
         let disttt 0
         let volll 0
         ;user-message(word "and the winner is " max_bidder " with a bid of " max_mon)
         ask bidder max_bidder [
           set actions_in lput act actions_in 
           set vol_in lput [Volume] of action act vol_in
           set day_in lput ticks day_in
           let winn position max(score) score
           set need need - [volume] of action act
           set pm lput [point_value] of self pm
           set asking_since 0
           set harv_dates lput (([harvesting-date] of action act) + ticks) harv_dates
           set disttt distancexy [xcor] of action act [ycor] of action act
           set volll [volume] of action act
           set temp_vol temp_vol + volll
           file-write "WIN"
           file-write [who] of self
           file-write ticks
           file-write ""
           file-write type_bidder
           file-write ""
           file-write ""
           file-write [reserve_price] of action act
           file-write max_mon
           file-write mean_mon
           file-write length(actions_in)
           file-write need
           file-write [who] of action act
           file-write [Species] of action act
           file-print ""
           let db_temp [0 0 0 0 0]
           set db_temp replace-item 0 db_temp [Species] of action act
           set db_temp replace-item 1 db_temp [location] of action act
           set db_temp replace-item 2 db_temp (([Reserve_Price] of action act) / ([volume] of action act))
           set db_temp replace-item 3 db_temp (max_mon / [volume] of action act)
           set db_temp replace-item 4 db_temp [re-auctions] of action act
           set db_transactions lput(db_temp) db_transactions
         ]
         
         let sale []
         set sale lput disttt sale
         set sale lput (max_mon / volll) sale
         ifelse [species] of action act = "Hardwood"
         [set sales_info_h lput sale sales_info_h]
         [set sales_info_s lput sale sales_info_s]
         
         
         ask bidders with [item i bidding > 0 and item i score > 0] 
         [ 
           let maxiprice item i max_price
           let bbidding item i bidding
           ;set pn [point_value] of self
           if [who] of self = max_bidder
           [set profit_in lput ((maxiprice - bbidding) / bbidding) profit_in
            ; user-message (word "" [who] of self)
            ; ;set point_need 
             ;ifelse point_value - Change_rate_value < 0 and pn
             ;[set point_value 0]
             ;[set point_value point_value - Change_rate_value]  
           ]
           
           if [who] of self != max_bidder
           [set profit_in lput (((bbidding - max_mon) / bbidding) * 0)profit_in
             
             ;let sign random-float 1
             ;ifelse sign < 0.5 
             ;[set sign -1]
             ;[set sign 1]
             
             ;ifelse point_value + Change_rate_value > 1
             ;[set point_value 1]
             ;[set point_value point_value + Change_rate_value]
           ]  
           ;user-message(word "we just scored the agent " [who] of self)
         ]
         set rev_temp rev_temp + max_mon
         set life-cycle lput ((ticks - [Creation_day] of action act) / Periodicity - 1) life-cycle
         set aver_react lput ((sum(life-cycle) / length(life-cycle)) * 100) aver_react
         set-current-plot "% Re-auction"
         plot mean(aver_react)
         ask action act [die]
         output-show (word "Period : " ticks ", Action : " act ", Winner : " max_bidder ", Revenue : " max_mon)
         set temp_book []
       ]
       [ask action act [set hearing_date hearing_date + periodicity
         set re-auctions re-auctions + 1
       ]
       file-write "RE-ACT" 
       file-write act
       file-write ticks
       file-write ""
       file-write ""
       file-write ""
       file-write ""
       file-write ""
       file-write [re-auctions] of action act
       file-print ""
       ]
       score_strategies
       set i i + 1
     ]
   
   set revenue lput rev_temp revenue
   
  ]
  
  ask links [die]
  
  update_trend  
end 

to transform

 if hearing-n = 12 and ticks = hearing-n * periodicity
    [
      ask bidders with [type_risk_need = 1] [
        let i random-float 1
        if i < 1 / 3
        [set type_risk_need 3]   
      ]
      ask bidders with [type_risk_need = 2] [
        let i random-float 1
        if i < 1 / 3
        [set type_risk_need 3]   
      ]
      if count(bidders with [type_risk_need = 3]) > 0
      [
        user-message(word "Now we have enter! We have " count(bidders with [type_risk_need = 3]) " agents of type 3")
      ]
    ]
end 

to count_agents_type
ask bidders [
 if point_value <= (3 / 3)
  [set type_risk_value 3]
  if point_value <= (2 / 3)
  [set type_risk_value 2]
  if point_value <= (1 / 3)
[set type_risk_value 1]    
]
end 

to score_strategies
  
  if count(bidders with[length(profit_in) > 0 and (type_risk_need = 1 or type_risk_value = 1)]) > 0
  [let temp_arr ([profit_in] of bidders with [length(profit_in) > 0 and (type_risk_need = 1 or type_risk_value = 1)])
    let i 0
    while [i < length(temp_arr)]
    [set mean_prof_t1 lput(mean(item i temp_arr)) mean_prof_t1
      set i i + 1]]
  if count(bidders with[length(profit_in) > 0 and (type_risk_need = 2 or type_risk_value = 2)]) > 0
  [let temp_arr ([profit_in] of bidders with [length(profit_in) > 0 and (type_risk_need = 2 or type_risk_value = 2)])
    let i 0
    while [i < length(temp_arr)]
    [set mean_prof_t2 lput(mean(item i temp_arr)) mean_prof_t2
      set i i + 1]]
  if count(bidders with[length(profit_in) > 0 and (type_risk_need = 3 or type_risk_value = 3)]) > 0
  [let temp_arr ([profit_in] of bidders with [length(profit_in) > 0 and (type_risk_need = 3 or type_risk_value = 3)])
    let i 0
    while [i < length(temp_arr)]
    [set mean_prof_t3 lput(mean(item i temp_arr)) mean_prof_t3
      set i i + 1]]
  
  
  set-current-plot "Mean Profit"
  set-current-plot-pen "Type 1"
  ifelse length(mean_prof_t1) > 0
  [plot mean(mean_prof_t1)]
  [plot 0]
  set-current-plot-pen "Type 2"
  ifelse length(mean_prof_t2) > 0
  [plot mean(mean_prof_t2)]
  [plot 0]
  set-current-plot-pen "Type 3"
  ifelse length(mean_prof_t3) > 0
  [plot mean(mean_prof_t3)]
  [plot 0]
  
  let temp_p1 0
  let temp_p2 0
  let temp_p3 0
  
  let sco_res_temp []
  ifelse mean_prof_t1 != [] 
  [set sco_res_temp lput mean(mean_prof_t1) sco_res_temp
    set temp_p1 mean(mean_prof_t1)]
  [set sco_res_temp lput 0 sco_res_temp
    set temp_p1 0]
  ifelse mean_prof_t2 != [] 
  [set sco_res_temp lput mean(mean_prof_t2) sco_res_temp
    set temp_p2 mean(mean_prof_t2)]
  [set sco_res_temp lput 0 sco_res_temp
    set temp_p2 0]
  ifelse mean_prof_t3 != [] 
  [set sco_res_temp lput mean(mean_prof_t3) sco_res_temp
    set temp_p3 mean(mean_prof_t3)]
  [set sco_res_temp lput 0 sco_res_temp
    set temp_p3 0]
  
  set sco_res_temp sort(sco_res_temp)
  set pos1 position temp_p1 sco_res_temp + 1
  set pos2 position temp_p2 sco_res_temp + 1
  set pos3 position temp_p3 sco_res_temp + 1
  
;user-message(word "now the learning process start, the sco_res_temp is " sco_res_temp ", and the positions 1, 2 and 3 are " pos1 " " pos2 " and " pos3)

  if length(pm) > 0
  [ask bidders [
  
    
    ifelse point_value < mean(pm)
    [if point_value + Change_rate_value < 1
      [set point_value point_value + 0.01 * Change_rate_value]]
    [if point_value - Change_rate_value > 0
      [set point_value point_value - 0.01 * Change_rate_value]]
    

    if type_risk_need = 1 or type_risk_need = 2 or type_risk_need = 3 
      [set point_need (need_actual - temp_vol) / need]
  ]]
  
  
  set-current-plot "Points of value"
  set-current-plot-pen "Winners"
  ifelse length(pm) > 0
  [plot mean(pm)]
  [plot 0]
  set-current-plot-pen "Type 1"
  ifelse count(bidders with [type_risk_value = 1]) > 0
  [plot mean([point_value] of bidders with [type_risk_value = 1])]
  [plot 0]
  set-current-plot-pen "Type 2"
  ifelse count(bidders with [type_risk_value = 2]) > 0
  [plot mean([point_value] of bidders with [type_risk_value = 2])]
  [plot 0]
  set-current-plot-pen "Type 3"
  ifelse count(bidders with [type_risk_value = 3]) > 0
  [plot mean([point_value] of bidders with [type_risk_value = 3])]
  [plot 0]
  
  set-current-plot "Profit Type of Strategy"
  set-current-plot-pen "Type 1"
  ifelse length(mean_prof_t1) > 0
  [plot last(mean_prof_t1)]
  [plot 0]
  set-current-plot-pen "Type 2"
  ifelse length(mean_prof_t2) > 0
  [plot last(mean_prof_t2)]
  [plot 0]
  set-current-plot-pen "Type 3"
   ifelse length(mean_prof_t3) > 0
   [plot last(mean_prof_t3)]
   [plot 0]
  
  ask bidders[
    set profit_in []
  ]
end 

to update_capacity
  ask bidders [
    if need != capacity [
      let ratio capacity / 365
      ifelse need + ratio > capacity
      [set need capacity]
      [set need need + ratio]
    ]
   ]
end 

to harvesting
ask bidders [
 if length(harv_dates) > 0
 [if ticks = min(harv_dates)
   [let pos position min(harv_dates) harv_dates
     set day_in remove-item pos day_in
     set vol_in remove-item pos vol_in 
     set harv_dates remove-item pos harv_dates
   ]
 ]  
]  

;ask actions [
; if ticks > harvesting-date + creation_day
; [   
;   die] 
;]
end 

to plotting
  if length(revenue) > 0
  [set-current-plot "Revenue"
    ;plot mean(revenue)
    set-current-plot-pen "Revenue" 
    plot last(revenue)
    set-current-plot-pen "Mean_Rev"
    plot mean(revenue)
    ifelse int(min(revenue)) = int(max(revenue))
    [set-plot-y-range int(min(revenue) - 1) int(max(revenue) + 1)]
    [set-plot-y-range int(min(revenue)) int(max(revenue))]
 ]
  
  ;set-current-plot "how many trees are here?"
 ; plot count(actions)
  
  temp
  
  set-current-plot "Average Market-P/R-P"
    set-current-plot-pen "Softwood" 
    plot (aver_plot11 + aver_plot12  + aver_plot13) / 3
     set-current-plot-pen "Hardwood" 
    plot (aver_plot21  + aver_plot22  + aver_plot23) / 3
    ;set-current-plot-pen "Loc 2" 
    ;plot aver_plot12
    ;set-current-plot-pen "Loc 0" 
    ;plot aver_plot13
    
    
   ; set-current-plot "Hardwood Mean Market/R-P"
    ;set-current-plot-pen "Loc 1" 
    ;plot aver_plot21
    ;set-current-plot-pen "Loc 2" 
    ;plot aver_plot22
    ;set-current-plot-pen "Loc 0" 
    ;plot aver_plot23
  
 ; set-current-plot "Type of strategy of bidders"
;  set-current-plot-pen "Type 1"
 ; plot count(bidders with [type_risk = 1])
 ; set-current-plot-pen "Type 2"
 ; plot count(bidders with [type_risk = 2])
;  set-current-plot-pen "Type 3"
 ; plot count(bidders with [type_risk = 3])
end 

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; Measurig Mean Profit ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; 

to temp
  
    set aver_plot11 0
    set aver_plot12 0  
    set aver_plot13 0  
    set aver_plot21 0  
    set aver_plot22 0
    set aver_plot23 0
    
    let temp_list11 []
    let temp_list12 []
    let temp_list13 []
    let temp_list21 []
    let temp_list22 []
    let temp_list23 []
    let i 0
        
  ;Softwood 1
  set temp_list11 filter [first ? = "Softwood"] db_transactions
    let result111 []
    foreach temp_list11
    [if item 1 ? = 1
      [set result111 lput item 2 ? result111
        ]
    ]
    let result112 []
    foreach temp_list11
    [if item 1 ? = 1
      [set result112 lput item 3 ? result112
        ]
    ]
    let result113 []
    set i 0
    while [i < length(result111)]
    [set result113 lput (item i result112 / item i result111) result113
      set i i + 1]
    ifelse length(result111) < 2
    [set aver_plot11 0]
    [set aver_plot11 mean(result113)]
  
  ;Softwood 2
  set temp_list12 filter [first ? = "Softwood"] db_transactions
    let result121 []
    foreach temp_list12
    [if item 1 ? = 2
      [set result121 lput item 2 ? result121
        ]
    ]
    let result122 []
    foreach temp_list12
    [if item 1 ? = 2
      [set result122 lput item 3 ? result122
        ]
    ]
    let result123 []
    set i 0
    while [i < length(result121)]
    [set result123 lput (item i result122 / item i result121) result123
      set i i + 1]
    ifelse length(result121) < 2
    [set aver_plot12 0]
    [set aver_plot12 mean(result123)]
  
  ;Softwood 3   ;;actually is not 3, is 0;;
  set temp_list13 filter [first ? = "Softwood"] db_transactions
    let result131 []
    foreach temp_list13
    [if item 1 ? = 0
      [set result131 lput item 2 ? result131
        ]
    ]
    let result132 []
    foreach temp_list13
    [if item 1 ? = 0
      [set result132 lput item 3 ? result132
        ]
    ]
    let result133 []
    set i 0
    while [i < length(result131)]
    [set result133 lput (item i result132 / item i result131) result133
      set i i + 1]
    ifelse length(result131) < 2
    [set aver_plot13 0]
    [set aver_plot13 mean(result133)]
  
  ;Hardwood 1
  set temp_list21 filter [first ? = "Hardwood"] db_transactions
    let result211 []
    foreach temp_list21
    [if item 1 ? = 1
      [set result211 lput item 2 ? result211
        ]
    ]
    let result212 []
    foreach temp_list21
    [if item 1 ? = 1
      [set result212 lput item 3 ? result212
        ]
    ]
    let result213 []
    set i 0
    while [i < length(result211)]
    [set result213 lput (item i result212 / item i result211) result213
      set i i + 1]
    ifelse length(result211) < 2
    [set aver_plot21 0]
    [set aver_plot21 mean(result213)]
  
  ;Hardwood 2
  set temp_list22 filter [first ? = "Hardwood"] db_transactions
    let result221 []
    foreach temp_list22
    [if item 1 ? = 2
      [set result221 lput item 2 ? result221
        ]
    ]
    let result222 []
    foreach temp_list22
    [if item 1 ? = 2
      [set result222 lput item 3 ? result222
        ]
    ]
    let result223 []
    set i 0
    while [i < length(result221)]
    [set result223 lput (item i result222 / item i result221) result223
      set i i + 1]
    ifelse length(result221) < 2
    [set aver_plot22 0]
    [set aver_plot22 mean(result223)]
  
  ;Hardwood 3 ;;actually is no 3, is 0
  set temp_list23 filter [first ? = "Hardwood"] db_transactions
    let result231 []
    foreach temp_list23
    [if item 1 ? = 0
      [set result231 lput item 2 ? result231
        ]
    ]
    let result232 []
    foreach temp_list23
    [if item 1 ? = 0
      [set result232 lput item 3 ? result232
        ]
    ]
    let result233 []
    set i 0
    while [i < length(result231)]
    [set result233 lput (item i result232 / item i result231) result233
      set i i + 1]
    ifelse length(result231) < 2
    [set aver_plot23 0]
    [set aver_plot23 mean(result233)]
end 

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; After Warm Up Period: Finding Regression ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; 

to update_trend
  
  if length(sales_info_h) > 1
  [set ag_h slope_m (sales_info_h)
    set bg_h intercept_b (sales_info_h)]
  if length(sales_info_s) > 1
  [set ag_s slope_m (sales_info_s)
    set bg_s intercept_b (sales_info_s)]
end      

to-report slope_m [data]
  
  let averagex averx (data)
  let averagey avery (data)
  let i 0
  let val1 0
  let val3 0
  while [i < length(data)]
  [set val1 val1 + (item 0 (item i data) - averagex) * (item 1 (item i data) - averagey)
    set val3 val3 + ((item 0 (item i data) - averagex) ^ 2)
    set i i + 1]
  let val4 (val1 / val3)
  report val4
end 

to-report intercept_b [data]
  let averagex averx (data)
  let averagey avery (data)
  report averagey - slope_m (data) * averagex
end 

to-report averx [data]
  
  let i 0
  let x []
  while [i < length(data)]
  [set x lput item 0 (item i data) x
    set i i + 1]
  let av_x mean(x)
  report av_x 
end 

to-report avery [data]
  
  let i 0
  let y []
  while [i < length(data)]
  [set y lput item 0 (item i data) y
    set i i + 1]
  let av_y mean(y)
  report av_y
end 

to new-bidders
 
  ;every 100 [
     if mouse-down? [
    create-bidders 1[
      set xcor mouse-xcor
      set ycor mouse-ycor
      set color black
      set shape "House"  
      create_parametres
    ]
  ]
 ; ]
end 

to create_parametres
  set process-cost 5 + random-float 2
   ifelse (%_papermill + %_lumbermill + %_logger) != 100
   [user-message (word "Please Adjust Bidders_Distribution")]
   [let typ random 100
     
     if typ <= %_lumbermill
     [set type_bidder "lumber"
       set color blue
       set Capacity 50 + random 5
       set profit_rent 5 + random 5
       set need random capacity
       set market_price 1.1 * (process-cost + Trasportion-cost * 7 + 5 + 4)]   ; harvest cost + price of hardwood
     
     if typ >  %_lumbermill and typ <= (%_papermill + %_lumbermill)
     [set type_bidder "paper"
       set color yellow
       set Capacity 130 + random 20
       set profit_rent 5 + random 5 
       set need random capacity
       set market_price 1.1 * (process-cost + Trasportion-cost * 7 + 5 + 2)]  ; harvest cost + price of hardwood
     
     if typ > (%_papermill + %_lumbermill)
     [set type_bidder "logger"
       set color red
       set profit_rent 3 + random 2
       set capacity 400
       set need random capacity
       set market_price 1.05 * (process-cost + Trasportion-cost * 7 + 5 + 3)] ]  ; harvest cost + price of hardwood
   
   set asking_since 0
   
   ifelse Learning_Type = "Value change"
   [set type_risk_value (random 3) + 1
     if type_risk_value = 1
     [;set score_risk [1.5 1.2 1.2]
       set point_value 0 + random-float (1 / 3)]
     if type_risk_value = 2
     [;set score_risk [1.2 1.5 1.2]
       set point_value (1 / 3 ) + random-float (1 / 3)]
     if type_risk_value = 3
     [;set score_risk [1.2 1.2 1.5]
       set point_value (2 / 3) + random-float (1 / 3)]]
   
   [set type_risk_need (random 2) + 1
     set point_need 0]
   
   set vol_in []
   set day_in []
   set profit_in[]
   set harv_dates []
   set slope 0
   set size 1.5
   set actions_in []
end 

There is only one version of this model, created over 8 years ago by Alvaro Gil.

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