Infectious disease outbreak-mutation and masking

Infectious disease outbreak-mutation and masking preview image

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Screen_shot_2018-02-02_at_12.53.50_pm lin xiang (Author)

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WHAT IS IT?

This model allows students to examine the effects of mutation and masking on the max daily cases and epidemic duration in a population. Both human beings and viruses are represented in the model.

HOW IT WORKS

  1. Susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model is used to build the present model.

  2. The model starts with a population of susceptible people (green) and one infectious person (orange). The infectious person carries the virus strain with the defined initial transmission rate.

  3. In each tick, each infectious person produces a new virus. The virus transmission rate either stays the same or mutates to become more or less transmissible at the defined mutation rate.

  4. The new virus may float 0.5 steps in a random direction and infect one of susceptible people within a radius of 1.5 at its transmission rate. The virus loses its ability to infect people if no susceptible people are within the infection radius.

  5. Infectious people remain contagious for six days. They either recover (become blue) or die at a mortality rate of 10%. No new people join this model to maintain the population density.

  6. Users may set up the percentage of masking in the population. The masked infectious people release 50% less viable viruses than unmasked infectious people. The transmission rate of a virus decreases by 50% when infecting a masked susceptible person (i.e., 70% become 35%, 50% become 25%, and so on).

  7. Users may set up the percentage of vaccinated people in the population. The present model assumes the vaccinated people will not be infected. However, the vaccinated people may get a breakthrough infection at a low chance when viruses mutate.

HOW TO USE IT

  1. First, choose the factors, such as population size, transmission rate, etc.

  2. Click on Set up/Reset, then Run/Pause. The model is set to stop when there are no infectious people.

  3. Observe the infection changes in the population in the plot and monitor.

  4. Use Run one day to run the model in a controlled way and collect day-by-day data.

  5. The people in the model are color-coded in two ways: SIR coloring and transmission rate coloring. The mode of SIR coloring displays the population based on people's health status (i.e., susceptible, infectious, or recovered); the mode of transmission rate coloring displays the population based on the virus transmissibility when the people get infected (i.e., cyan and brown indicate the people who are infected by the less transmissible strains while red and purple indicate the people who are infected by the highly transmissible strains). Use the button Switch color-coding mode or the switch Color-coding-modes to switch between the two modes.

THINGS TO TRY

Collect the data of the max daily cases and epidemic duration to examine the effects of mutation rates and % of masking.

RELATED MODELS

Find this model series at http://3dsciencemodeling.com

  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-Basic Phenomenon
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-Transmission and mortality
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-Population Comparison
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-HealthCare, Isolation and Quarantine
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-Social distancing
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-Vaccination
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-SEIR model
  • Infectious Disease Outbreak-variants

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Dr. Lin Xiang (lin.xiang@uky.edu) created this model at the University of Kentucky in 2022. If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.

Xiang, L. (2022). Infectious Disease Outbreak-mutation and masking. Department of STEM Education, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.

CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/.

Science Brief: Community Use of Masks to Control the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

Comments and Questions

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Click to Run Model

breed [persons person]
breed [viruses virus]


persons-own [infectious-period p-contagious susceptible infectious immunity vaccination]
viruses-own [infection infection-period]

Patches-own [ ]
Globals [max-daily-cases breakthrough]

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;
;   Setup procedures
;
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

to setup
  clear-all
  set-default-shape viruses "c-virus-0"

  set-patches
  setup-people
  add-an-infectious
  color-code

  reset-ticks
end 

to set-patches
  ask patches [set pcolor 9 + random-float 1]
end 

to setup-people
  let masking (population * %-of-masking / 100)
  ask n-of masking  patches
  [ sprout-persons 1
    [set size 0.9
     set color 56
      set shape "person-1"
     set susceptible true
     set infectious false
     set immunity 0
     set infectious-period 0
     set vaccination false
     ]
  ]

    ask n-of (population - masking) patches
  [ sprout-persons 1
    [set size 0.9
     set color 56
     set shape "person-0"
     set susceptible true
     set infectious false
     set immunity 0
     set infectious-period 0
     set vaccination false
     ]
  ]

 let vaccinated (population * Vaccination-rate / 100)
  ask n-of vaccinated persons with [susceptible = true and infectious = false]
  [set susceptible false
   set infectious false
   set immunity Initial-Transmission-Rate
   set p-contagious Initial-Transmission-Rate
   set vaccination true
    set color 97]
end 

to add-an-infectious
  ask one-of persons
  [set color 27
   set susceptible false
   set infectious true
   set p-contagious Initial-Transmission-Rate
   hatch-viruses 1 [
      set size 0.5
      set infection Initial-Transmission-Rate
      set-v-color
  ]]
end 

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;
;   Go procedures
;
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

to go

  if ticks > 0 and not any? persons with [susceptible = false and infectious = true] [stop]


  move
  produce-viruses
  infect
  virus-ability
  recover
  color-code
  find-max-daily-cases
  plot-levels
  tick
end 

to move
  ask viruses
  [right random 360 forward 0.5]
end 

to produce-viruses
  ask persons with [susceptible = false and infectious = true]                   ;ask infectious people
  [ifelse shape = "person-1"                      ;if masking
    [if random 100 < 50                             ;at a chance of 50%
      [hatch-viruses 1 [                              ;produce a new virus
        set size 0.5                                ;set the size of a virus
         ifelse random 100 < Virus-mutation-rate           ;set virus mutation rate
          [set infection 1 + random 100]            ;infection mutates to a rate between 1 to 100%
          [set infection [p-contagious] of myself]  ;not mutate
        set-v-color]                                ;set virus color based on infection rate
    ]]

    [hatch-viruses 1 [                              ;if no masking, always produce a new virus
        set size 0.5                                ;set the size of a virus
         ifelse random 100 < Virus-mutation-rate           ;set virus mutation rate
          [set infection 1 + random 100]            ;infection mutates to a rate between 1 to 100%
          [set infection [p-contagious] of myself]  ;not mutate
      set-v-color]]                                ;set virus color based on infection rate
  ]
end 

to infect
  ask viruses
  [if any? persons with [infectious = false] in-radius 1.5
    [let infected-person one-of persons with [infectious = false] in-radius 1.5
     (ifelse
       [immunity] of infected-person > 0 and [shape] of infected-person = "person-1"  ;mutation lead to breakthough infection to a masked person,
           [if random 1000 < (0.05 * abs (infection - [immunity] of infected-person))     ;cut down 50% infection rate
               [move-to infected-person
                 ask infected-person
                  [set color 27
                   set susceptible false
                   set infectious true
                   set p-contagious [infection] of myself
                   set immunity [infection] of myself        ;update immunity
                  ]
             set breakthrough breakthrough + 1 die]]    ;ask virus to die after infecting a person

        [immunity] of infected-person > 0 and [shape] of infected-person = "person-0"  ;mutation lead to breakthough infection to an unmasked person,
            [if random 1000 < (0.1 * abs (infection - [immunity] of infected-person))     ;cut down 50% infection rate
              [move-to infected-person
               ask infected-person
                 [set color 27
                  set susceptible false
                  set infectious true
                  set p-contagious [infection] of myself
                  set immunity [infection] of myself        ;update immunity
                 ]
               set breakthrough breakthrough + 1 die]]    ;ask virus to die after infecting a person

        [immunity] of infected-person = 0 and [shape] of infected-person = "person-1"  ;first infection to a masked person,
            [if random 100 < infection * 0.5                       ;cut down 50% infection rate
               [move-to infected-person
                 ask infected-person
                  [set color 27
                   set susceptible false
                   set infectious true
                   set p-contagious [infection] of myself
                   set immunity [infection] of myself        ;update immunity
                  ]
                die]]    ;ask virus to die after infecting a person

        [immunity] of infected-person = 0 and [shape] of infected-person = "person-0"  ;first infection to an unmasked person,
            [if random 100 < infection
              [move-to infected-person
               ask infected-person
                [set color 27
                  set susceptible false
                  set infectious true
                  set p-contagious [infection] of myself
                  set immunity [infection] of myself        ;update immunity
                 ]
                die]])    ;ask virus to die after infecting a person
            ]]
end 

to virus-ability
 ask viruses
  [ifelse infection-period >= 2 [die][set infection-period infection-period + 1]]
end 

to recover
  ask persons with [susceptible = false and infectious = true]
  [ifelse infectious-period >= 7
    [ifelse random 100 < 10 [die] [set color 97 set susceptible false set infectious false set infectious-period 0]]   ;mortality equals 10%
    [set infectious-period infectious-period + 1]
  ]
end 


;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
;
;   supporting procedures
;
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

to set-v-color   ; set colors of viruses
  (ifelse
    infection >= 80  [set color 15]
    infection < 80 and infection >= 60 [set color 127]
    infection < 60 and infection >= 40 [set color 117]
    infection < 40 and infection >= 20 [set color 35]
    infection < 20  [set color 75])
end 

to plot-levels ;; this creates creates the bar graph
    set-current-plot "People infected by variants with different transmissibilities"
    clear-plot
    plot-pen-down
    set-current-plot-pen "< 20%"
  plotxy 1 count persons with [p-contagious < 20 and p-contagious > 0]
    set-current-plot-pen "20%~39%"
  plotxy 2 count persons with [p-contagious < 40 and p-contagious >= 20]
    set-current-plot-pen "40%~59%"
  plotxy 3 count persons with [p-contagious < 60 and p-contagious >= 40]
    set-current-plot-pen "60%~79%"
  plotxy 4 count persons with [p-contagious < 80 and p-contagious >= 60]
    set-current-plot-pen ">= 80%"
  plotxy 5 count persons with [p-contagious >= 80]
end 

to set-p-color  ; set colors of people
  ask persons
 [ (ifelse
    p-contagious >= 80 and vaccination = false [set color 15]
    p-contagious < 80 and p-contagious >= 60 and vaccination = false [set color 127.5]
    p-contagious < 60 and p-contagious >= 40 and vaccination = false [set color 117.5]
    p-contagious < 40 and p-contagious >= 20 and vaccination = false [set color 36]
    p-contagious < 20 and p-contagious > 0 and vaccination = false  [set color 75]
    p-contagious = 0 [set color 7]
    )]
end 

to set-SIR-color
  ask persons
 [ (ifelse
    susceptible = true and infectious = false [set color 56]
    susceptible = false and infectious = true [set color 27]
    susceptible = false and infectious = false [set color 97]
    susceptible = true and infectious = true [set color 0])]
end 

to color-code
 (ifelse
  Color-coding-modes = "Susceptible-infectious-recovered" [set-SIR-color]
  Color-coding-modes = "Variant transmission rates" [set-p-color])
end 

to find-max-daily-cases
  if count persons with [susceptible = false and infectious = true] > max-daily-cases        ;Count the infectious.If it is greater than the current record of max daily cases
  [set max-daily-cases count persons with [susceptible = false and infectious = true]]       ;update the max daily case
end 

There are 7 versions of this model.

Uploaded by When Description Download
lin xiang 11 months ago update plotting Download this version
lin xiang 11 months ago update plotting Download this version
lin xiang 11 months ago Reverted to older version Download this version
lin xiang 11 months ago unwrap the boundary Download this version
lin xiang 11 months ago unwrap the boundary Download this version
lin xiang about 1 year ago adjust info tab Download this version
lin xiang about 1 year ago Initial upload Download this version

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